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As of 8pm EST Tuesday...
http://www.nycaviation.com/hosting/234710W5_NL_sm.gif
Looks like it's guiding with intent on every Caribbean Island out there, becoming a hurricane Thursday afternoon.
Then likely to curl up western Florida, fading and head Northeast through the US.
Irene really sucked, I hope we don't get a repeat of that.
Maybe it will make a left and hit Honduras and get Julian Assande a bit wet...
@Manny - that is Ecuador - and - yes - we in South Florida has our eyes on Isaac!!
Newer models show it heading through Florida and into the Gulf.
TD Ten looks like it could be on the eastern coast of FL...which could possibly then track up the coast.
Must be late August, the tropics are heating up!
Irene was a nightmare here in Aug. 2011. The subways were all shut-down and tennis fans were disappointed when Arthur Ashe Kids Day was cancelled. I recall a gust of wind caused a tree on my block to fall; knocking-down power lines. I forgot how badly air transport was affected. I think all flights were cancelled that Saturday. Let's hope that Isaac gives us a break but one forecast shows her heading for the Big Easy.
http://www.nycaviation.com/hosting/092344W5_NL_sm.gif
Looks like New Orleans is going to get it.
Reading that 287 flights were cancelled for today out of MSY, with the airport finally closing as they brace for impact.
This guy is an overhyped dud. Worst threat will be rain. Next time a legit storm approaches this area, people will not take it seriously.
just rain, but 20 inches of rain and a Storm surge that could be 12+ feet. "dud"? you're kidding right.Quote:
Originally Posted by GothamSpotter
I'm with Matt...I think they are overhyping this a bit and those numbers of 20" and a 12' surge simply won't happen.
I think it may, maybe slightly lower. Its a very slow moving storm.Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil D.
I think some parts of Florida have already gotten 20 in of rain from Isaac so there's that. But the storm surge, even if it is 12 ft, will affect a relatively small number of people right along the coast. Wind damage will be very limited.
at 11AM its still a tropical storm, but winds of up 100mph have been found at flight level. strengthening slowly.
The first hurricane to hit land always gets a decent amount of attention. This one maybe a little more because it's headed towards New Orleans. I don't think it'll be a complete dud but I think it won't be "severe" by any means.
Looking at charts, the "flight level" winds are much lighter than most of the country...which at those altitudes can be 75mph on average. At worst, I'm seeing 35mph at 34,000ft near Isaac.Quote:
Originally Posted by eric8669
I'm only reporting what I'm reading and hearing, The hurricane hunters are reporting winds of near 100mph. Actual ground level winds are near 70mph.Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil D.
Flight level winds from the data = flight level of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft, which is only around 4600 ft.Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil D.
As of 12:30, Issac was classified as a 75 mph, category 1 hurricane. Though it won't make landfall as the category 3 storm that was predicted days ago, and probably won't even reach category 2, the rain amounts and associated flooding are worrisome. I really don't think that 20 inches is outside of the realm of realistic possibility, considering that a few of the short-range models are now predicting massive rainfall amounts (32.5 inches in NOLA, nearly 48 inches on the MS/AL border) While those are numbers that I would personally consider to be excessive, even if the total rainfall is half that number, there would be major flooding.
Lakeshore Drive is already been closed due to flooding around the parks near the lake from big 12-15 foot waves... This is way in-land from the heart of the storm or even the outer bands of heavy rainfall.
I assume Lakeshore Drive is in New Orleans? I only know the Chicago version.
It runs along the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain.
For those of you saying it's gonna be a dud, consider (remember, I am from New Orleans originally):
1.) New Orleans is a bowl. Bowls plus lots of water tends to not end well. And this storm is going to be dumping far more rain than Katrina did. Also, in Katrina, New Orleans was actually on the weaker side...this time, it will be hit full-force on the strong side.
2.) The levees have not yet been tested against a major force of nature since the repairs.
From the One Mile at a Time blog, comes this video of an AF A340 doing a last second go-around at SXM while it was being affected by Issac recently.
Watching continuing coverage...and as I predicted, this thing is far from a dud.
Just saw a clip from NBC News with Al Roker out standing in the wind and rain in New Orleans. I bet right about now, he is wishing he was at Bayswater, watching paint dry... :rolleyes:
KMSY 291302Z 08033G51KT 1 1/4SM +RA BR OVC012 26/24 A2902 RMK AO2 PK WND 07051/1255 P0005
would you like to retract your "dud" status now?Quote:
Originally Posted by GothamSpotter
I'd hope so. I don't think I've ever seen a hurricane just stop half over land and half over water and thus not weaken even a tiny little bit for nearly twelve hours.Quote:
Originally Posted by eric8669
12-foot flood waters are being reported in New Orleans.
Okay, not a dud.
Looks like it has finally weakened some and is finally pushing inland very slowly as opposed to hanging there. Some models actually showed it as though it were bouncing off the coast, taking a step back from land after touching it.
They confirmed it made landfall twice, so it did wobble back out into the water. Still, only went down by 5 mph since 12+ hours ago. God bless those on the Gulf coast. :(Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil D.
Here is the flooding taking place in Braithwaite, LA.
http://www.nycaviation.com/hosting/2...98355624_n.jpg
The two landfalls I had heard of were the "minor" landfall yesterday evening on a small spit of land in the Mississippi River Delta, and then the second, "major" landfall early this morning on the gulf shores south of New Orleans. Not saying you are wrong or that it didn't "bounce", just that there were 2 actual landfalls as it crossed a small piece of land and then continued across the water to the main US landmass.
That was my understanding of the two landfalls as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by mldoc
Right now the Natrional Guard and others are performing rescues but only from the land. Because it is still raining heavily and stormy other assets like USCG ships and helicopters cannot launch as of yet.
HOLY CRAP! I get worried that my roof may have a leak, and this guys entire downstairs is flooded. I cant imagine this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil D.
This is absolutely awful that in 2012 NOLA is still subject to this kind of flooding. I would have though of raising the city by now. Or putting up better defenses like The Netherlands and Italy (Venice) have done. I am amazed at that picture above, wow! :frown: ...
Actually, Manny, NO itself seems to have fared well thanks to the new levees. Most of the flooding has been in less developed areas away from the city.
you are correct. Apparently the flooding pictured above is outside the federal flood protection zone. Residents said that they have never seen this before and have always fared well in the past. Hopefully they can figure something out to prevent this from happening again.Quote:
Originally Posted by moose135