Significant Risk of Nor'easter This Week

[Matt Molnar]

Another Nor'easter is expected to make its way up the coast this week.

40-50 mph winds, moderate coastal flooding and heavy rain can be expected along the coast, with heavy snowfall further inland Wednesday and Thursday.

Some areas where Sandy destroyed protective dunes, particularly on the Jersey Shore because of the wind direction, will be more vulnerable to coastal flooding than usual for a storm this size.

Here's the 4 day Euro model.

http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_500p_4d.gif

[Matt Molnar]

Newer models are moving the storm further east, which could mean slightly less wind and surf, but greater likelihood of snow on the coast.

There are already high wind watches in effect for south Jersey and a coastal flood watch for all of NJ.

[yankees368]

I made a quick comparison photo of the flooding from Irene as opposed to Sandy. Same location.
http://i880.photobucket.com/albums/ac1/yankees368/comparison.jpg

[Matt Molnar]

I made a quick comparison photo of the flooding from Irene as opposed to Sandy. Same location.

Crazy.

[Matt Molnar]

The high wind watch now includes NYC, LI, Connecticut. Calls for sustained winds of 25-35 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

[NIKV69]

This sucks! Just what we need.

[Matt Molnar]

Not only will it potentially cause more outages in places that just got their power back, it could delay ongoing repairs of existing outages by at least a day, as the guys in the cherry pickers will be forced down by the high winds.

[Whitese]

I am a tad disappointed that the Utilities cannot engineer their stuff any better. I rather pay a bit more monthly if that is needed to re-engineer some stuff to withstand storms/flooding. But they rather go cheap, let us bitch and moan, as eventually anger dissipates with time.

[PhilDernerJr]

Whitese, I'm not sure what you're referring to or suggesting they do differently. Downed trees can't be stopped, aren't their responsibility, and cause a lot of the trouble. Underground networks are also susceptible to flooding and other challenging maintenance issues.

[NIKV69]

Whitese, I'm not sure what you're referring to or suggesting they do differently. Downed trees can't be stopped, aren't their responsibility, and cause a lot of the trouble. Underground networks are also susceptible to flooding and other challenging maintenance issues.

Not to mention the cost is not even measurable and nobody would want to pay for it.

[moose135]

I am a tad disappointed that the Utilities cannot engineer their stuff any better. I rather pay a bit more monthly if that is needed to re-engineer some stuff to withstand storms/flooding. But they rather go cheap, let us bitch and moan, as eventually anger dissipates with time.
Hard to engineer power lines that will stand up against a tree falling on them. Putting them underground cost much more to install than overhead wires, and comes with problems of its own. LIPA estimates (http://www.lipower.org/stormcenter/faq.html#4) burying all the power lines on Long Island would cost $25 billion and take 30 years to complete. A 2005 study by LIPA actually estimated the cost at $33 billion, and would more than double the average electric bill.

A repair job isn't just a few guys in a bucket truck - it means digging up streets, sidewalks or your yard, then repairing that as well, so in most cases, repairs would take longer. Underground wires do not last as long as above ground, and are also susceptible to flooding. Remember - Manhattan has underground utilities, and the power went out there as well.

[mirrodie]

John, glad you brought up those numbers as I was going ot air them on fb. Yes Lipa claims in wont bury wires as it would cost 30 billion.


Yet, I have to ask myself, how much in pay and overtime did Gloria, the 93 Noreaster, Irene and Sandy cost added all up?
I wonder but I doubt we'd get an accurate sense of the nubmers yet I am sure they would justify burying those lines.

That said, the 30 years figure is bull****. You call in workers like theyve subcontracted out and you get it done. 5 years is a more accurate figure.

That said, as some here know, our house is on the market. We are near the highest point of the island as we dont want to deal with the water. BUT in considring neighborhoods, "no overhead lines" was a big point for us on a new home. But having seen that underground lines DID fail, its not a huge point.

I also stated on FB recently that Im not going to piss my money on a generator. Buying a generator would ahve only bought me 3 to 5 hours waiting in line for gas. Seriously? WTF?
From my post:
I'm telling you we need to keep WORKING on battery backup solutions. The more players that are out there, the cheaper the technology would get. It's not going to happen overnight but it has to be done. This happened with Gloria, what, how many years ago, at least 25? We are dealing with the same exact crap that we dealt with 25 years ago. A week of the dark ages.

The only difference now is that more people need generators---> and thus gas; But today's gas pumps rely on electricity!!!
No electricity = gas can't be pumped + oil tankers barred from port = gas lines like the 70s.

Its Appalling. LOOK at our insane ****ing dependence on gas!!!! Meanwhile our "friends" in Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan and Pakistan are likely laughin at us waiting for oil. Oh look, the dumb ass Americans are going through the same **** they went through in the 1970s. When do those *******s ever learn???""

Oh and we are so eager to help them and throw our money their way. Have they scratched our back yet?

As far as solar energy and battery backups being too expensive for most Americans, I'm sure when they spend upwards of 3 to 5 hours waiting in gas lines, And being limited to 10 gallons of rationed gas, suddenly the wheels start to turn.

But sadly, this too shall pass and we dumb ass Americans will forget about it in 3 months and go back to the same routine.


I did some searching and was leaning toward a diesel generator. Finally I may have found a viable solar back up solution. Solar is clean and reliable and available. Its more expensive as well. But worth it.

I bought 2 pair of leather shoes about 6 years ago. Both over over $350 a pair. They still look brand new and yet cost me less than the $95 Kenneth Coles I had that lasted me 9 friggin months. The initial investment cost more BUT has SAVED money over the years.

RANT OVER!

[Whitese]

I hear ya! I was reading though that there are ways for shoring up some hardware. Wires, yeah, only so much you can do. but transformers in poles, substations, etc...common!

[Landing Lights]

Again, there's a lot more to it though. Electrical components like transformers don't like to be subjected to the unrestricted flow of electricity that occurs when lines arc to themselves or to ground. That unrestricted flow causes too much energy to flow through things like transformers, in turn causing excess heat that cannot be managed effectively. This heat causes a breakdown in parts intended to keep electricity on its own path, and once that breakdown occurs bad things happen. All of the transformer related problems in a storm are likely caused by outside effects such as wiring problems. That tree that just snapped 2 wires and dropped them both into the same puddle is the root cause of the nearby transformer exploding.

What worries me most with this storm is that especially in the hardest hit areas there may have been temporary repairs done to get service restored to an area. This is not an uncommon route to take post storm as the resources to perform a proper long-term repair may not be available. All of those out of state crews that you see working don't come cheap by any means. I forget the amount but it was several hundred dollars per hour for a crew of two linesmen in a truck. A repair designed to last weeks or months can be performed, and then the local crews can come back later on when they aren't piling on the OT to do a repair that will last for years. This method keeps the utility's overall costs down while restoring service more quickly. We had a large branch fall on the lines near my house over the summer during a storm. The local utility did a temporary repair to get us through the night, bypassing several poles and leaving wires far closer to the road then normal. Once the remainder of the tree had been removed, the crews came back and properly finished the job, without needing to disrupt power to anybody but those in the immediate vicinity. Just that repair from 1 branch took probably 18-30 hours and 3 trucks to complete. That meant it was probably well above 100 man-hours of work. It is these temporary repairs that would be the most likely to fail in a new storm since they may be strung through trees or otherwise. On the plus side, given the severity of the recent storm, outages may be less common in areas where there aren't temporary repairs since there are fewer branches that are prone to breakage in high winds.

[Whitese]

I understand the complexities and random nature of the damage caused by wind and trees....But it seems to me that it's about what do we think is a priority to invest in and improve. The same way we spent billions of dollars for road, bridge, etc repair, we could do something with our electrical grid. Whats the point of being technologically advanced if your primary power source for all the wonders of modern life is so vulnerable.

There has to be some better way, but I guess we don't feel like addressing it yet, as a society, or initiatives are killed at conception by the powers above in Gov't and Moguls of industry.

[Matt Molnar]

...


I don't know if solar is a good option yet. Battery tech is still relatively unreliable I think, an there's the likelihood of the solar panels blowing off your house. There are other alternatives to gasoline generators, they're just more expensive. My uncle has one hooked up to his natural gas line which can also run on propane in the unlikely event gas service gets cut off (earthquake?) There are also hydrogen fuel cells which are clean and reliable but even more expensive.

[yankees368]

What concerns me the most about LIPA is the lack of preparation and real-time management. Utilities in both NJ and NYC took proactive measures to shut down substations when flooding became an issue there. This lets them turn the power back on much faster.
LIPA, on the other hand, let 50/185 of their substations explode due to flooding, creating much worse problems.
It's almost as if they wanted the substations totaled so they could collect insurance on them.
Our local substation just came back online yesterday, according to Newsday.

[Landing Lights]

As an electrician friend of mine put it, there is no way to make even a portion of the electrical grid outage proof. Sure underground electrical systems are much less prone to outages from falling limbs and high winds. But they are significantly more expensive to install and maintain. $30 billion is not a small number by any means, and the idea of doubling electric bills in an area of the country with some of the highest electrical rates in the country would be a non starter. Not to mention the public outrage at the prospects of digging up every street in the county with overhead wires. The electrical distribution system is the single largest investment that your local utility has. Putting everything underground would mean taking that entire investment, throwing it in the trash, and starting over. There is little if anything that can be reused between an above ground and an underground electrical system.

Just before we moved out of the City, ConEd dug up the road in front of our apartment to lay a main electrical feed coming from Yonkers to Manhattan. For about a month we had a road of steel plates as they would dig a long section, and then lay the cables and do other related work, and then come back to cover the section. It took about a month or so to complete just that section. There is also the matter of connecting each individual customer to the now underground electrical grid. Those connections would probably be solely on the home or business owner's dime and would cost thousands of dollars. Sure in a perfect world all electrical lines would be underground, but I just don't see it happening given the costs and inconveniences involved.

Electricity, for all that we use it for is, like you said, a wonder of modern life. There are ways that we can live without it for relatively short periods, just like we can live with road and bridge closures for relatively short periods. But I think that you underestimate the costs involved with the upkeep of said system. Roughly half of your electrical bill is the "delivery" portion, which is the costs for the utility to deliver your electricity from the generating plant to your home or business. It is just like the costs associated with maintaining roads and bridges. We don't rip up every road or bridge in the entire county simply because there is a better way to build them that leads to fewer potholes, but instead we make repairs and rebuild sections as necessary.