Northeast Weatherpocalypse Discussion 7/26/12

[Matt Molnar]

Flying to or from the northeast today? Expect delays. Lots of them. Widespread thunderstorms will continue to wreak havoc through Thursday.

As of 12:30 PM ET...

http://www.nycaviation.com/newspage/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/delays-726-1230.jpg

These are delay programs for flights arriving at the listed airports. For example, if you are flying to LGA, your flight will be held at its origin for 89 minutes.

FCAA08 is an imaginary line that runs basically east to west across the middle of Virginia. If your flight has to cross that line northbound, i.e. you're flying FLL-DCA, your flight will be held at FLL for 13 minutes.
http://www.nycaviation.com/newspage/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/fcaa08.jpg

FCAOB1 is an imaginary line that runs roughly north to south from Lake Erie through western New York, Pennsylvania and into West Virginia. If your flight has to cross that line eastbound, i.e. LAX-JFK, your flight will be held at LAX for 104 minutes.

http://www.nycaviation.com/newspage/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/fcaob1.jpg

Note that these are all average times, and your flight could be delayed further by other factors.

Some airlines are waiving change fees for northeast travel today, including JetBlue and Air Canada.

Stay tuned...

[Ychocky]

YOW spotter checking in here. Feel free to divert here ;)

[Matt Molnar]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif

The "moderate" threat of severe weather has now moved to include nearly all of Long Island.

[PhilDernerJr]

As of now, the next wave of storms will strike NYC ater 7pm, echo tops being as high at 50,000ft or more.

[Matt Molnar]

One of the models shows a bow-shaped supercell/derecho hitting NYC around 10pm. Or it could fizzle.

Seems that today's high temps are going to be quite a bit lower than originally forecast so that might work in our favor. But there are storms popping in western PA and NY now with tornadoes.

[Fighting_falcon_51]

It looks like the worst of it is going to be up North in CT.

Looks like Steve is getting what he deserves. :tongue:

It does look like it is going to be an interesting night. Stay safe everyone.

[PhilDernerJr]

http://www.nycaviation.com/hosting/hpc_sfc_analysis_1800_072612.gif

As if the approaching storm that already has tornadoes was not enough, cold fronts (blue) or squall lines (the red dash & dots) that hit and converge with both a trough (orange dashes) and a warm front (red line) usually creates very ripe conditions for even more tornadoes in the armpit or "pocket" of the convergence. The above prognostic chart shows that as being... New York City. Hopefully that dry line moves and cooling evening air weakens it slightly, but we (I) won't know for a bit yet.

[Fighting_falcon_51]

Looking at the new SPC products:

T-Storm Chance: Moderate
Tornado Chance: Between 2-5%
Winds (50 knots or higher): 45% (30% for eastern tip of LI)
Hail: 15%


For those of you with scanners have your local SKYWARN frequency programmed so you can hear what is going on around you. Also have NOAA All Hazards programmed, 162.550MHz (KWO35 - NYC), 162.475MHz (WXM80- Riverhead,NY).

[Cary]

I assume Enterprise's inflato-dome was built to withstand extreme weather?

[megatop412]

I assume Enterprise's inflato-dome was built to withstand extreme weather?


One would think that had been taken into account, I hope...

[mirrodie]

Standby as the Intrepid may soon have a new underwater attraction...



seriously, got a meteorologic question Phil. Is the storm is coming from the west and as it passes over NYC, do all the tall buildings have any sort of a "buffering" or lessening effect of winds coming from the north? In other words, do the buildinsg of manhattan act as a bit of a wall or barrier and soften the winds that hit ares just east of manhattan, such as rossevet island and queens/LIC?

[moose135]

Just talked with a coworker who is flying back to CLT this evening (US out of LGA, I think) and his 6:59 departure has already been delayed to 9pm...he's thinking about spending another night in NYC.

[megatop412]

I just checked and all I see is clear blue skies...so you all be sure to send those diverting heavies down my way please, I'll be waiting on the back deck thanks:cool:

[Matt Molnar]

I assume Enterprise's inflato-dome was built to withstand extreme weather?
I read that the dome was damaged by last week's pre-opening storm, but not sure if it was from hail, wind, lightning, etc. If today's storms hold together, they will be worse than that.

[TJK]

First go around is official. Delta 216 pulled up going for 22left, right in front of me. I happened to be going to see where "the mounds" we're for the first time, on the way to an appointment out on long island. A heavy suddenly pulled up just as I was turning around to get on my way. Wind shear and heavy turbulence at approx 100 feet was the cause. They're switching to the fours possibly for the night, depending on where these winds force things.

First time I've seen a go around from that close. I hope everyone's ok...but that was pretty damned impressive to see.

[PhilDernerJr]

seriously, got a meteorologic question Phil. Is the storm is coming from the west and as it passes over NYC, do all the tall buildings have any sort of a "buffering" or lessening effect of winds coming from the north? In other words, do the buildinsg of manhattan act as a bit of a wall or barrier and soften the winds that hit ares just east of manhattan, such as rossevet island and queens/LIC?

I don't think the buildings have any effect, other than to take the brunt of lightning strikes. On the contrary, the shore itself has more of a protecting effect, especially in the Spring months. Since the water is still cool, the air above it is cooler as well, causing the storm to lose its fuel of warm/hot air, and stalling the storm.

The only way a structure can affect weather is if they were actual mountains.

[rkfast]

About 815 and all at once, 50 some odd aircraft (or whatever the number is...who knows) at JFK called in to shut down engines. Madness. Now its all silent at 821 and the tower is just BSing with the aircraft and planning for departures. Crazy.

[Fighting_falcon_51]

Well most of the nasty stuff passed and here is what happened in southwestern Suffolk (Copiague).

As the storm approached winds picked up, a couple of minutes later there were some flashes of lightening and the skies really opened up. After that the wind died and there were constant flashes of lightening and then it slowly tapered off.

I have to say for where I am, the storm was not nearly as severe as advertised (which is a good thing). They were spot on about the rain though, the skies really did open up. I have to say the July 18th thunderstorms were much more intense.

[yankees368]

Watched Delta 216 buzz back out of JFK after trying to land just before the storm. Apparently, they were just 100 AGL before headed back up and diverting to PVD.

https://p.twimg.com/AyxMJwDCIAAQFMq.jpg:large

[Gerard]

Well most of the nasty stuff passed and here is what happened in southwestern Suffolk (Copiague).
As the storm approached winds picked up, a couple of minutes later there were some flashes of lightening and the skies really opened up. After that the wind died and there were constant flashes of lightening and then it slowly tapered off.
I have to say for where I am, the storm was not nearly as severe as advertised (which is a good thing). They were spot on about the rain though, the skies really did open up. I have to say the July 18th thunderstorms were much more intense.

I was thinking the same thing. Scary dark clouds, wild lightning and that was it. Not even that much rain here in Plainview (Eastern Nassau). Just saw a departure overhead and a few 22s
just passed by also. And from FB posts and a few texts we were lucky as other areas got the brunt especially closer into the city!!

[threeholerglory]

i was out on my bike ride with my group of guys and rode right into the teeth of that thing...wind almost blew us over, couldn't see anything, stinging rain and lot of lightening....another day in the life of a stupid cyclist =P

[PhilDernerJr]

Definitely weakened as it came up to to the eastern border of NJ. Glad!

[Gerard]

I Just saw a departure overhead and a few 22s
just passed by also.

10:45 went out with my dogs as the rain had stopped and skies clearing and a 22 passed over head. I would say about 15 seconds later a second 22 arrival passed by a little south of me, not that high and it looked like he was racing to catch up to the first one I saw!! Pretty wild!! From my backyard I have a nice clear view to the SE and see more 22 arrivals coming in!!

[Gerard]

Definitely weakened as it came up to to the eastern border of NJ. Glad!

Seemed like after it hit the city it weakened and it was a fast mover!! Upstate and parts of Jersey got rocked though!! Just saw Lee Goldberg on ABC7 and radar shows more rain/storms off and on through tomorrow morning!!

[Matt Molnar]

"I'm not Lloyd Lindsay Young or anything like that." -JFK tower during the worst of the storm telling a helicopter pilot the forecast didn't look so good.

Here's a clip of LLY doing the weather on Channel 9 circa mid- to late-80s I would guess.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjQqyjv-Zm0

[Gerard]

"I'm not Lloyd Lindsay Young or anything like that." -JFK tower during the worst of the storm telling a helicopter pilot the forecast didn't look so good.


Thats hilarious. And I guess the copter thought it could outrun the storm? That could be dangerous.:tongue: Any identifier?

[megatop412]

what an awesome clip, I totally forgot about that guy

[megatop412]

what it looked like down here- got some debris including a bird being tossed around
http://media11.dropshots.com/photos/396780/20120726/b_195752.jpg
http://media9.dropshots.com/photos/396780/20120726/b_195930.jpg
http://media9.dropshots.com/photos/396780/20120726/b_195759.jpg
I ain't no Lloyd Lindsey Young either but I thought this was going to turn into something right in front of my house
http://media11.dropshots.com/photos/396780/20120726/b_200600.jpg

[TJK]

"I'm not Lloyd Lindsay Young or anything like that." -JFK tower during the worst of the storm telling a helicopter pilot the forecast didn't look so good.

Here's a clip of LLY doing the weather on Channel 9 circa mid- to late-80s I would guess.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjQqyjv-Zm0

I heard that. It was hysterical. Apparently the copter pilot didn't get the reference, or has no sense of humor. I almost Missed my exit laughing.