Air France plane missing over the Atlantic

[MarkLawrence]

Breaking news on MSNBC - AF flight from Rio to Paris goes missing

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31040692/

CNN has coverage as well - it's an A330 that is missing

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/ ... index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/06/01/air.france.brazil/index.html)

[Iberia A340-600]

My first thought was that after all the trouble Air France has been having with their 777-300ER fleet and engine failures, that sadly one of them had unfortunately crashed. I then continued reading and saw that number one the flight originated in GIG, not GRU, and that the aircraft involved was an A330-200.

This would be the first (?) fatal crash of an A330-200 if the verdict is 'catastrophic'. My thoughts go out to the family members waiting to hear and to Air France.

[mmedford]

First Commerical Crash, 2nd airframe crash...Airbus Test Aircraft.

at 8:38am local, no wreckage found yet...

[MarkLawrence]

Latest news is that they say it flew through an area of severe storms and turbulence and then sent an automatic signal that there was an electronic circuit malfunction - probably struck by lightening. Those storms must have been very high up as the plane was 1,500 miles north east of Rio and I am guessing at cruising altitude - probably 35,000+?

[Delta777LR]

let hope nothing severe.

[T-Bird76]

let hope nothing severe.

Serigo.. the plane and its passengers are lost. If the plane successfully ditched the life rafts have GPS emitters that would have been picked up by receivers already. Sadly this is a lost cause.

[Mellyrose]

So sad. I can't even imagine what happened up there. I feel terrible for the families.

F-GZCP was the aircraft: http://www.airliners.net/search/photo.s ... humbnails= (http://www.airliners.net/search/photo.search?regsearch=F-GZCP&distinct_entry=true&page=1&page_limit=25&sid=23545131aba7239a7e052b83657ebfdc&sort_order=views&thumbnails=)

[N101CV]

Godspeed to all and may they always have tailwinds. It does not look good at all for this one. Once they do start finding wreckage this is going to be a real tricky one as well due to the distance off shore as they havew estimated already. Deep water filled with sharks. R.I.P.

[PhilDernerJr]

For storms to be at that altitude, they must have been very severe. But I'm surprised that if weather was the culprit, that they'd even have flown through that to begin with.

Only automated messages from the plane indicate something very sudden. If they have an AFIRS system to receive automated messages, they probably also have coordinates of where the plane was when that message was sent, as well as other information on the plane such as thrust, fuel burn, etc.

Very sad story. My thoughts are with the families.

[MarkLawrence]

I agree with Phil - those storms had to be bad! Why not try to fly around them though. I appreciate that if the storm band was very long, they probably would have had to divert for extra fuel - but - safer....

Of course, I remember back to the Helderberg disaster in SAA's history many years ago - disappeared into the Indian Ocean off Mauritius - culprit there - hazardous cargo - so, what might have been in the cargo hold??

I just pray they knew nothing about it - it's a long fall from 35,000'! Our thoughts and prayers with the families as well.

[Matt Molnar]

I just pray they knew nothing about it - it's a long fall from 35,000'! Our thoughts and prayers with the families as well.
CNN reports that in addition to the alert Air France received about the electrical failure, they received one indicating the fuselage had broken up...though I guess it's possible that was transmitted after impact.

Obviously lots of terribly frightening factors involved here, but perhaps the scariest is that we may never really know what happened since it will be challenging to locate the data and voice recorders.

[Matt Molnar]

CNN reports that in addition to the alert Air France received about the electrical failure, they received one indicating the fuselage had broken up...though I guess it's possible that was transmitted after impact.
Correction, there was no message about a break up, but there may have been an indication that the aircraft lost pressurization.

[LGA777]

Have not had a lot of time to read a lot but here a few things I have read not yet mentioned in this thread.

While many passengers where Brazilian or French they where many different nationalities onboard including 6 Americans. Their would have been 7 Americans but one was traveling with a Brazilian friend, the friend realized at check-in his passport had expired so both delayed their trip.

Some relatives claimed to have recieved text messages from onboard the flight saying "I love You" and "we are very scared."

The aircraft was delivered in April 2005 making it just over 4 years old C/N 660.

This is the response in my employers daily news message and was the lead story.

Air France Flight 447

US Airways and our 33,000 employees are keeping all of those touched by the events of Air France Flight 447 in our thoughts and prayers. The Airbus A330 went missing earlier this morning and has yet to be found. Officials from Air France reported that, prior to disappearing, the aircraft sent an automatic signal indicating electrical problems.

Regards

LGA777

[MarkLawrence]

Interesting Ron - thanks!!


Some relatives claimed to have recieved text messages from onboard the flight saying "I love You" and "we are very scared."

Wouldn't this imply some form of cell service or internet service? Does Air France have internet capabilities on their long range flights?

[Matt Molnar]

Wouldn't this imply some form of cell service or internet service? Does Air France have internet capabilities on their long range flights?
Very unlikely that these were sent from over the ocean, as there is no cell service out there. I don't think AF offers internet, but that wouldn't have anything to do with an SMS txt msg anyway. I think it is possible that the plane was still over land and very much under control but some pax felt some bumps and saw storms out the window and sent those messages.

[nikon50bigma]

But since this is a modern aircraft wouldn't it have had the instruments onboard need to predict and 'see' the thunderstorm... like doppler rader or something like that for weather? Or even if they didn't have instruments like that, shouldn't the centers or controlers have told the pilot about the inclement weather?
My thoughts and prayers go out to them and their families.

[Gerard]

A spokesperson for AF is quoted as saying a "lightning strike" has caused the catastrophic crash. And the President of France has asked for help from the satellite assests of the United States to locate the wreckage.

[Matt Molnar]

A spokesperson for AF is quoted as saying a "lightning strike" has caused the catastrophic crash.
Clarification: He said "it is possible" the plane was struck by lightning, which might have contributed to the crash, but lightning alone does not cause planes to crash. It is estimated that every single plane in the world gets struck by lightning at least once a year.

[Iberia A340-600]

Apparently there are now reports of a TAM pilot having spotted flaming debris in the Atlantic near the Senegalese coast.

[N101CV]

By this point I think this is a recovery event. I would have my doubts that there are any survivors at all. There has only been one passenger in history if my memory is correct who has ever survived a crash from cruise and that was in Soviet Russia

[Gerard]

A spokesperson for AF is quoted as saying a "lightning strike" has caused the catastrophic crash.
Clarification: He said "it is possible" the plane was struck by lightning, which might have contributed to the crash, but lightning alone does not cause planes to crash. It is estimated that every single plane in the world gets struck by lightning at least once a year.

Yup. Interesting report by John Nance on ABCWorld News that lightning or turbulence "shouldnt" be able to bring a plane down and he
was actually talking, in his opinion, of a possible explosion aboard the plane, hinting of terrorism.
But also learned that the A330 itself actually sent out 10 automated messages to maintenance advising of an electrical failure.
And the storms they ran into arent the typical Tstorms we see around here. They can go as high as 50,000 feet and the turbulence
is much much worse than one would typically run into.
Wonder if we will ever know what happened?

[mirrodie]

There are at least a 1000 posts on Anet that are PURE BS and speculation.

RIght now, all we can say is it went down, perhaps wreckage is found and the info that AF has pumped out is only there to drive further speculation.

What is TRULY amazing is that as advanced as we have become, with radar and GPS, that planes can still get "lost". Jsut goes to show that we are still behind.

I certainly hope its a rescue op, but only time will tell.

[G-BOAD]

Very sad news, my thoughts go out to the friends and family of the victims. I am surprised that in this modern age we don't have rather sophisticated enough to track the aircraft efficiently over the ocean and that a modern airliner can fail due to weather. I hope the black boxes can be found in order to provide the vital clues needed in order to establish what happened.

Also, on a related note; I was watching CNN and they showed this photo: http://www.jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=6521385
credited to Jetphotos.net

[Midnight Mike]

BREAKING NEWS: Brazilian media say search teams may have spotted Air France jet debris in the Atlantic

****No further information, so, standby for more news****

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/

[PhilDernerJr]

What is TRULY amazing is that as advanced as we have become, with radar and GPS, that planes can still get "lost". Jsut goes to show that we are still behind.

The only thing is that there is no radar over the ocean, so ATC cannot see them.

Otherwise, I am sure that a new plane like that with a major airline did have GPS. I don't know every system known to man, but those "automated messages" sound like the plane had what is called an AFIRS system (Automated Flight Information Reporting System), which would report back to Air France system operations various info on the aircraft, and that those GPS positions would have been sent along with those electronic failure messages. The question would just be where the plane fell and floated to after those messages were received.

I wouldn't say the plane was "lost", but it's just that no amount of technology can determine the location of something that probably broke up into thousands of pieces in an uninhabited place.

[moose135]

There are at least a 1000 posts on Anet that are PURE BS and speculation.
Including the ones complaining about "speculation" in the media... :roll:

[N101CV]

Here is my question. I only know what I have heard via various media outlets as we have not even located this plane yet but what if we are looking in the totally wrong places for this airplane? :idea: Lets jhust say for sake of adding some more speculation that there was some sort of drastic electrical malfunction whether it be brought on by lightning (highly doubtful) or otherwise like maybe a rat down in the AV bay or somthing. So now with this in knowladge we move to the next tier of speculation. Knowing a little bit about the Airbus in normal configuaration the airplane regulated cabin pressure through the outflow valve automaticly. Let us just say for sake of arguement that there was a failure or two in systems brought on for whatever it might be and it caused a depressureization. Most failures on the Airbus will appear as an ECAM message or warning to the crew but lets say that we have a major failure on our hands and Gen.1/2 are both out. So now we have a plane by this point that is now at a cabin alt of 35,000 feet with major electrical problems. Very Al la Paine Stewart. That is just one of my ideas struck in a moment of bored speculation.

[moose135]

Let us just say for sake of arguement that there was a failure or two in systems brought on for whatever it might be and it caused a depressurization. Most failures on the Airbus will appear as an ECAM message or warning to the crew but lets say that we have a major failure on our hands and Gen.1/2 are both out. So now we have a plane by this point that is now at a cabin alt of 35,000 feet with major electrical problems. Very Al la Paine Stewart.
Unless there is a large hole in the side of the fuselage, you are not likely to rapidly lose cabin pressure. If the pressurization system failed, and the cabin altitude began to climb, the cockpit crew would receive a warning, allowing them to don their oxygen masks, and the cabin oxygen masks would deploy for the passengers. Even without a cockpit warning, you will generally feel the effects of lack of oxygen, and if nothing else, when the cabin masks drop down (automatically due to cabin altitude) the crew will know something is wrong, and it should happen early enough to let them get their masks on.

In the Paine Stewart crash, I can't speak for the crew, but I don't know that there were automatic masks for the passengers, given it was a business jet and certified under different standards from airliners.

[N101CV]

Good point which I overlooked on the cabin mask deployment. So scratch idea.

[Matt Molnar]

I'm a little puzzled that it seems there are no reports coming from ships in the area. Does that mean there are really no tankers, no container ships, no fishing vessels, no Navy ships, no cruise ships in that fairly large chunk of the Atlantic? I don't know a ton about shipping lanes (I do realize the Suez Canal is a lot shorter), but don't a good number of ships still go around Africa while traveling between Asia and the Atlantic? Or is this really sort of a very low traffic no man's land? The closest Brazilian Navy vessels still won't arrive in the assumed debris area until tomorrow.

Another factor to keep in mind... the treacherous weather in that area which probably brought the A330 down gets worse over the summer, which will make it even more challenging and dangerous for recovery forces to make progress.

[Matt Molnar]

It's been pretty certain, but it's more or less official as of a few minutes ago...

Wreckage spotted in the Atlantic Ocean is "without a doubt" from the Air France jet that disappeared en route to Paris from Rio de Janeiro with 228 people on board, Brazil's defense minister said on Tuesday.

A Brazilian Hercules plane on a search mission for the missing passenger jet saw a band of wreckage along a 5-km (3-mile) strip, Nelson Jobim told a news conference.

"It confirms that the plane fell in this area," he said. (Reporting by Maria Pia Palermo; writing by Brian Ellsworth; editing by Stuart Grudgings and John O'Callaghan)

[MarkLawrence]

As I saw reported somewhere else - the race is now on for the black boxes - they only emit their signal for 30 days. That's, if they can be found, going to be the tell-tale story if what happened.

[PhilDernerJr]

Anyone know the capabilities of modern diving vessels in water as deep at 7000 meters? More importantly...cant the CVR and FDR even survive in water that deep?

[N101CV]

Anyone know the capabilities of modern diving vessels in water as deep at 7000 meters? More importantly...cant the CVR and FDR even survive in water that deep?

I was thinking that and according to what they are saying the area where they suspect the impact took place is a very ridge filled area.

[Matt Molnar]

Anyone know the capabilities of modern diving vessels in water as deep at 7000 meters? More importantly...cant the CVR and FDR even survive in water that deep?
7,000 meters would be nearly impossible...

* The beacons on the boxes only operate down to 14,000 feet, about 4,300 meters
* A report from the US Navy says, in theory, they could retrieve one from 6,000 meters
* The deepest ever retrieved was from 4,200 meters, after the crash of South African 295 in the Indian Ocean

:arrow: Retrieving Air France black box will be epic task (http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE55155120090602) [Reuters]

[PhilDernerJr]

Yikes. I hope that 7000 meters depth is wrong.

[Matt Molnar]

Tomorrow's giant, pointless headline: Bomb threat reported against Air France flight in Buenos Aires four days earlier.

I don't think authorities should rule out terrorism just yet, but it seems unlikely these events would be related. I'm sure airlines as large as Air France receive bomb threats pretty frequently.

[hiss srq]

An interesting note that was brought to my attention by a friend in conversation that would make sense though totally tossing any other ideas out the window I had thought of is this. The TAM crew that initially spotted the wreckage reportedly spotted several "points of orange light" I.E. fire on the water below. If the airplane broke up in flight as many are suspecting and there was fire on the water. This would lead to suspicion of of a possible bomb or explosion in flight.

[PhilDernerJr]

I don't see how fire on the water would lead to that.

Right now, my personal hypothesis that I've developed with some people I've spoken with is that the aircraft went into the severe storm and encountered very severe turbulence, hitting a pocket of air that caused a hard drop and loss of control. Maybe the cockpit crew was very relaxed with the "seats back" and the Captain in the bathroom during this time, and they simply were not able to recover, and the plane broke apart due to overspeed.

That would still cause a fire as it broke up and flames would still be present among the pieces and liquids floating after splash.

[bluejuice]

I glanced over at A-net for an answer to this question. "If ACARS can transmit info back to AF headquarters,Why cant voice be sent the same way?'' I understand that most voice communications is VHF and it has a limited range. Can someone give me an answer.

[fly.mcs]

I truly feel for these families and the people onboard; my condolences to them all.

I just have a question ..why does Air France continue to use flight number 447, even in these few days after the accident? I remember after the ditching of flight US Airways 1549, the airline cancelled AWE1549 in the following days and replaced it with AWE1543, if I recall correctly..

[Mellyrose]

I truly feel for these families and the people onboard; my condolences to them all.

I just have a question ..why does Air France continue to use flight number 447, even in these few days after the accident? I remember after the ditching of flight US Airways 1549, the airline cancelled AWE1549 in the following days and replaced it with AWE1543, if I recall correctly..

Are they really? That IS very surprising.


Found this on Anet forums. Very detailed meteorological analysis for those interested:

http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/

[MarkLawrence]

Found this on Anet forums. Very detailed meteorological analysis for those interested:

http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/

Thanks Mel for posting that - it is the most amazing read!

[LGA777]

I truly feel for these families and the people onboard; my condolences to them all.

I just have a question ..why does Air France continue to use flight number 447, even in these few days after the accident? I remember after the ditching of flight US Airways 1549, the airline cancelled AWE1549 in the following days and replaced it with AWE1543, if I recall correctly..

Well first of all re US you are correct. The following days and beyonds flight number was changed to 1543 LGA-CLT-SEA about 3 hours after the accident. It was already scheduled to change to Flight 1867 and upgrade back to the normal A-321 in that time slot for the Feburary schedule.

This is standard industry practice and at most airlines the flight number is permantly retired.

Re Air France 447 is not daily, for example today only 443, the daily 744 is operating. In my CRS computer, 447 still shows operating tommorow, this is unaccapetable, and Air France should have acted with in hours of this tragedy to change the number. The time it takes to update to other airline's CRS systems should be able to be changed in a matter of hours, 24 at the most, not days. I just tried to book a flight from GIG to CDG on airfrance.com for late June on the days two flights operate it still offers me Flight 447, UNBELIVABLE Air France, you dropped the ball here big time !

Regards

LGA777

[fly.mcs]

Yes, I was tracking AFR447 last night (02JUN09).. It departed GIG at 19.06, arriving CDG at 11.19. And while AWE1549 was a successful ditching with no fatalities (thank God), that number was still changed. I hope AF decides to change it very soon! Some might not be so thrilled..

[SPEEED]

Till this day I don't understand why they don't design a blackbox attached to a floating device with an ejecting capability (built close to a fuselage panel). Upon water impact (liquid sensor), the box would get detached from the panel, and ejected to float up to the surface... Attach it/paint it to something that can be seen from a distance and it can be spotted and retrieved easily.


...Doesn't sound like rocket science to me. :?

[cancidas]

I glanced over at A-net for an answer to this question. "If ACARS can transmit info back to AF headquarters,Why cant voice be sent the same way?'' I understand that most voice communications is VHF and it has a limited range. Can someone give me an answer.
commercial aircraft have VHF radios, which do have a limited range. i'm not sure on how the whole ACARS system works but i know it doesn't suffer the same range issues as VHF radios do.

[moose135]

Till this day I don't understand why they don't design a blackbox attached to a floating device with an ejecting capability (built close to a fuselage panel). Upon water impact (liquid sensor), the box would get detached from the panel, and ejected to float up to the surface... Attach it/paint it to something that can be seen from a distance and it can be spotted and retrieved easily.

...Doesn't sound like rocket science to me. :?
That sounds like a solution in search of a problem. People are focusing on this because this crash is in the news, but in the grand scheme of things, how many times has this been an issue? Going back over the last 25 or so years you have the KAL 007 shootdown, the Air India 182 bombing, the SAA Helderberg crash, TWA 800, Swissair 111, EgyptAir 990, and probably a few more that I've missed. The point being, even if it's a dozen crashes in that time, it's against how many millions of airline flights that were conducted over the past 25 years. Compare that to the cost to re-design and retrofit a different set of CVR and FDR boxes to the civilian airliner fleet, and I don't see where there is much to gain. Remember, the boxes are designed to withstand a crash and fire, and are typically housed in a secure location near the tail. Having them near the outer skin of the airliner may not provide sufficient protection in all crash scenarios.




I glanced over at A-net for an answer to this question. "If ACARS can transmit info back to AF headquarters,Why cant voice be sent the same way?'' I understand that most voice communications is VHF and it has a limited range. Can someone give me an answer.
commercial aircraft have VHF radios, which do have a limited range. i'm not sure on how the whole ACARS system works but i know it doesn't suffer the same range issues as VHF radios do.
ACARS uses VHF for primary transmission of data (that's how so many people can have an ACARS monitoring set up at home) but when out of range of VHF, it can also use HF or SatCom to transmit data. You don't really need ACARS for voice communications - aircraft such as this one are equipped with HF radios, and may even have voice SatCom. The situation here likely wasn't that the crew had no way of contacting controllers, it was was probably a case of no time for communications. If they had several minutes, they could have attempted an HF call.

[PhilDernerJr]

Also keep in midn that the CVR is not only used for crashes. They will use that data to research other incidents and issues that pertain to aircraft control and cockpit conversation.

[Matt Molnar]

Chilling details emerge...string of messages indicating multiple systems failures echo those transmitted by Shuttle Columbia as it disintegrated...


If they can't be recovered, investigators will have to focus on maintenance records and a burst of messages sent by the plane just before it disappeared. Officials have released some details of these messages, but a more complete chronology was published Wednesday by Brazil's O Estado de S. Paulo newspaper, citing an unidentified Air France source.

Air France and Brazilian military officials refused to confirm the report. But if accurate, it suggests that Flight 447 may have broken up thousands of feet in the air as it passed through a violent storm, experts told The Associated Press.

The report said the pilot sent a manual signal at 11 p.m. local time saying he was flying through an area of "CBs"—black, electrically charged cumulo-nimbus clouds that come with violent winds and lightning. Satellite data has shown that towering thunderheads were sending 100 mph (160 kph) updrafts into the jet's flight path at that time.

Ten minutes later, the plane sent a burst of automatic messages, indicating the autopilot had disengaged, the "fly-by-wire" computer system had been switched to alternative power, and controls needed to keep the plane stable had been damaged. An alarm also sounded, indicating the deterioration of flight systems, according to the report.

Three minutes after that, more automatic messages indicated the failure of two other fundamental systems pilots use to monitor air speed, altitude and direction. Then, a cascade of other electrical failures in systems that control the main flight computer and wing spoilers.

The report repeats a detail previously released by Brazil's Air Force: that the last message came at 11:14 p.m., indicating loss of air pressure and electrical failure. The newspaper said this could mean sudden de-pressurization, or that the plane was already plunging into the ocean.
Furthermore, a number of ships have finally made it to the recovery area, only to be hampered by rough seas.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id ... _article=1 (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D98JCD7O3&show_article=1)

[Matt Molnar]

Popular Mechanics:

Diving Robots Could Recover Air France 447's Black Box (http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/robotics/4320244.html)
By Mark Huber
Published on: June 4, 2009

After officials pinpointed the location of Air France's Airbus A330 crash site, they turned to the difficult task of recovering the black boxes, which hold the official recordings of events that happened before the plane went down. Black boxes, which are actually painted orange, can give investigators the missing bits and pieces of data needed to determine an accident's probable cause. To help officials find the boxes, embedded technology sends sonarlike signals, which can be detected for up to 30 days provided listening equipment can get within approximately 1 mile of the box, according to a spokesman for the National Transportation Safety Board. In the case of Flight 447, the crash area in the Atlantic Ocean is too deep for divers to reach.

In instances such as this, where the site is not accessible, side-scan sonar can be used to locate the boxes underwater and map the wreckage to guide remotely operated deep-sea vehicles (ROV) for recovery. The Brazilian navy, now on the scene, does not possess the equipment necessary to take on recovery, but sonar and robots are available through several other governments, oil companies, independent service contractors, and nongovernmental organizations, according to Al Bradley at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute in Massachusetts. On Sunday, Woods Holes' latest ROV, the $8 million Nereus, dove down 35,768 feet at the deepest surveyed point in the oceans, Challenger Deep in the Pacific's Mariana Trench. With this dive, the ROV became the world's deepest-diving robot. The highly maneuverable Nereus can be controlled by a fiberoptic connection or can swim autonomously when switched to a "free swimming" mode. [Full Article (http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/robotics/4320244.html)]

[Matt Molnar]

Till this day I don't understand why they don't design a blackbox attached to a floating device with an ejecting capability (built close to a fuselage panel). Upon water impact (liquid sensor), the box would get detached from the panel, and ejected to float up to the surface... Attach it/paint it to something that can be seen from a distance and it can be spotted and retrieved easily. ...Doesn't sound like rocket science to me. :?
I guess someone in Congress had the same idea...

BusinessWeek:

To date, attempts to get beyond reliance on a single black box have gone nowhere. One example: U.S. legislation that would have required a second cockpit voice recorder, flight data recorder, and emergency beacon on commercial airliners that would automatically get jettisoned from an aircraft in trouble. Such a requirement was referred to a congressional aviation subcommittee on infrastructure and transportation in 2005. The requirement never went farther.
From an interesting article about technology that already exists that would make these difficult black box searches obsolete, or at least less crucial...if only the airlines would pay for them...
:arrow: Beyond the Black Box: Accidents Needn't be so Mysterious (http://www.businessweek.com/blogs/money_politics/archives/2009/06/beyond_the_blac.html?campaign_id=rss_daily)

[SPEEED]

^^ Interesting read :)

[PhilDernerJr]

The landing of US1549 in the Hudson was great and all, but now it seems that people are unrealistically holding on to hope when there's a water crash. This is the third time I've read something like "What is clear is that there was no landing. There's no chance the escape slides came out." Really? Gee, all signs pointed to these guys arriving on Gilligan's Island after a successful water landing.

Also, the FoxNews headline reads "Was It Pilot Error? Reports emerge that Air France jet that went down in Atlantic may have been flying too slowly." Even if the plane was going slow...that doesn't mean it was pilot error. In heavy turbulence, you slow down the plane so you don't "hit the bumps" as hard. A heavy nosewind in a heavy storm and even then I doubt you'd be that close to stall speed at cruise.

[PhilDernerJr]

Air Comet pilot nearby said the following: "Suddenly, we saw in the distance a strong and intense flash of white light, which followed a descending and vertical trajectory and which broke up in six seconds," the captain wrote.

This would indicate a bomb a little bit more I guess.

[T-Bird76]

Air Comet pilot nearby said the following: "Suddenly, we saw in the distance a strong and intense flash of white light, which followed a descending and vertical trajectory and which broke up in six seconds," the captain wrote.

This would indicate a bomb a little bit more I guess.

Phil is this an "eyewitness" report? Sounds like a burst of lightning. If this was a bomb a terrorist group would have come forward by now. They don't destory things without letting the world know..otherwise it defeats their purpose of putting real fear into the minds of the public.

[PhilDernerJr]

I'd give a pilot a little more credit on being able to determine explosion versus lightning. You may well be right, but I can't think up an explanantion for an in-flight explosion, if it was in fact one.

I'm curious to hear more people's ideas as to what may have possibly caused this. Anyone?

[T-Bird76]

I'd give a pilot a little more credit on being able to determine explosion versus lightning. You may well be right, but I can't think up an explanantion for an in-flight explosion, if it was in fact one.

I'm curious to hear more people's ideas as to what may have possibly caused this. Anyone?

interesting pictures..

http://translate.google.com/translate?j ... e0=&swap=1 (http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=da&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fekstrabladet.dk%2Fnyheder%2Fkrigogk atastrofer%2Farticle1176619.ece&sl=da&tl=en&history_state0=&swap=1)

http://74.125.159.132/translate_c?hl=da ... incPkksrxA (http://74.125.159.132/translate_c?hl=da&ie=UTF-8&sl=da&tl=en&u=http://www.formulatv.com/1,20090602,11598,1.html&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&usg=ALkJrhgaaOepRrf-79jJSUbBincPkksrxA)

[cancidas]

I'm curious to hear more people's ideas as to what may have possibly caused this. Anyone?
IMO it was either lightning or turbulence. what happenned to flt 447 had to happen suddenly and catastrophically and for electrical systems to fail that means that either a generator shorted out or was altogether lost. could turbulence or lightning take out an engine? maybe, if the turbulence is severe enough. lightning could have hit an engine itself too.

[lijk604]

[quote="T-Bird76interesting pictures..

http://translate.google.com/translate?j ... e0=&swap=1 (http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=da&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fekstrabladet.dk%2Fnyheder%2Fkrigogk atastrofer%2Farticle1176619.ece&sl=da&tl=en&history_state0=&swap=1)

http://74.125.159.132/translate_c?hl=da ... incPkksrxA (http://74.125.159.132/translate_c?hl=da&ie=UTF-8&sl=da&tl=en&u=http://www.formulatv.com/1,20090602,11598,1.html&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&usg=ALkJrhgaaOepRrf-79jJSUbBincPkksrxA)[/quote]

Very interesting...reminds me of an incident off the coast of Long Island back in the 90's.

[mirrodie]

YOU TOOK THE WORDS RIGHT OUT OF MY MOUTH!

[MarkLawrence]

I have been reading lots of possiblities all over the place. One of the best ones I read happens to be a blog that I read frequently - Dave is a US Airways A319 pilot - with a lot of experience from all his blog entries. In his words, lightening or turbulence can bring down an aircraft. For those that are interested, his blog is at:

http://flightlevel390.blogspot.com/

[FlyingColors]

As always, we may never know, OR BE TOLD, the truth :roll:

[MarkLawrence]

As always, we may never know, OR BE TOLD, the truth

That's the bottom line......

[Iberia A340-600]

I'm not quite sure what this is about, but this is one of the latest headlines on BBC:

"LATEST:Debris recovered in the Atlantic is not from Air France jet, says Brazilian air force official"

[MarkLawrence]

Here is the link

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8083474.stm

THey said they picked up a wooden pallet and the A330 had no wooden pallets - also, the oil slick could have come from a ship - very mis-leading......

[Matt Molnar]

interesting pictures..

http://translate.google.com/translate?j ... e0=&swap=1 (http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=da&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fekstrabladet.dk%2Fnyheder%2Fkrigogk atastrofer%2Farticle1176619.ece&sl=da&tl=en&history_state0=&swap=1)

http://74.125.159.132/translate_c?hl=da ... incPkksrxA (http://74.125.159.132/translate_c?hl=da&ie=UTF-8&sl=da&tl=en&u=http://www.formulatv.com/1,20090602,11598,1.html&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&usg=ALkJrhgaaOepRrf-79jJSUbBincPkksrxA)
Gran Canaria is along the flight path, but about 1500-1800 miles northeast of where they think the plane went down. Hmmm.

[Matt Molnar]

They said they picked up a wooden pallet and the A330 had no wooden pallets - also, the oil slick could have come from a ship - very mis-leading......
Brazil this morning claimed they had found a 23 foot long chunk of plane. What's wrong with them?

[Iberia A340-600]

CNN is now reporting that NONE of the debris, including the seat, are from the A330:


On Wednesday, searchers recovered two debris fields and had identified the wreckage, including an airplane seat and an orange float as coming from Flight 447. Officials now say that none of the debris recovered is from the missing plane.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/ ... index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/06/04/plane.crash/index.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/06/04/plane.crash/index.html)

[USAF Pilot 07]

WTF? This investigation is turning into a "comedy of errors" so-to-speak... Someone needs to take charge and do it right.

It's all well and nice to speculate on what could have caused the crash. Was it a bomb? Was it lightning? Was it turbulence? We may never know - especially if the black box is never recovered...

The aircraft's flightpath was through a region known as the ITCZ (inter-tropical convergence zone - I was a meteorology major; yes I know a geek)... This region is known as a breeding ground for very severe storms - some of which eventually become cyclonic. Storms in this region can - and do - grow as high as 50,000+'. For a storm to grow that high, it has to have strong updrafts associated with it (overshooting tops are a perfect example of storms with strong updrafts that generally are severe). Mother Nature is a beast and will have her way. With all our modern technology sometimes we feel like we are completely invincible against her - but too many times people find out the hard way that if you f**k with her you more than likely will always get burned and come out the loser.

If it's true the pilot sent back a report that they were entering a cell or cluster of CBs, not only does this point to the fact that the crew probably saw the weather on radar, but had enough visual cues outside to confirm what their wx radar was painting. Flying over the Atlantic like they were, I'd imagine they were following certain tracks at hemispheric altitudes. I would also imagine deviations from these established tracks happen quite regularly due to the frequency of severe storms in these area.

So the question becomes, did the crew try to avoid any type of convective activity they were picking up in-front of them? These were surely experienced pilots, who had probably flown this route numerous times and dealt with weather conditions similar to the ones they were facing that night on previous flights.
This is where all my questions come into play. If they didn't deviate around the storms, why did they choose not to?

Fuel comes to mind. Maybe they ran their numbers, saw how much they would have to deviate, and decided that doing so would put them either too close to minimum fuel or even with not enough fuel to continue to their destination without having to divert.

Experience comes to mind as well. There's a "saying" that the most dangerous pilots out there aren't "new" guys because they are too scared to try anything remotely dangerous or dumb and are usually with someone who will slap them if they try. And the really experienced guys have been scared one too many times to try anything dangerous/dumb again or to let anyone else try it. It's the guys who are mid-level with enough experience, who get into a routine and who get comfortable, but who haven't done anything too stupid to have scared the living $hit out of them, who pose the greatest threat. Being A330 guys, you'd have to think these guys were probably pretty senior, but who knows, they'd probably done the trip many times, maybe had personal factors (i.e. get-home-itis) and thought, "hey this won't be too bad".

There are way too many questions that come to mind to write down here, but all are valid and any one - or more than likely a combination of them - could be the culprit of the crash. If it was in fact a bomb that went off, well then the fate of everyone on that aircraft was sealed the minute they boarded it.

It's always easy to Monday morning quarterback any incident involving two HUMAN beings charged with a job of safely operating a multi-million dollar piece of equipment through the skies, sometimes filled with as many as 300 people. Criticism and critique are necessary to an extent after any flight - if we just shrugged off any incident we wouldn't really be doing a good job of trying to mitigate future similar accidents from occurring. But jumping to rash and/or radical conclusions is not. Hopefully in due time, and with due process we will learn of all the facts (namely CVR transcripts/FDR information) and be presented with a logical and solid conclusion of what caused this aircraft to crash. In turn we can all learn something from it, and prevent future similar occurrences from happening.
My guess is that if it wasn't an explosive device, pilot error will probably end up being the main culprit (as it is with most crashes).

[T-Bird76]

WTF? This investigation is turning into a "comedy of errors" so-to-speak... Someone needs to take charge and do it right.

Two simple reasons for this....France and Brazil.

[Matt Molnar]

Very interesting insight, Clark.

Tom, agreed. Brazil especially...their recent history of post-crash information distribution (see Gol 1907) is abysmal.

Latest theory: the plane broke up due to an overspeed condition resulting from an airspeed indicator malfunction, perhaps due to ice.

Airbus, apparently deducing some strong theories about what happened from those automated messages, today issued an advisory to operators of all its aircraft, reminding them to follow established procedures when pilots suspect airspeed indicators are not working correctly.

:arrow: Clues Point to Speed Issues Before Air France Crash (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/05/world/europe/05plane.html?ref=americas) [NY Times]

[Matt Molnar]

Here's another, more detailed story about the pitot tube theory, and a history of accidents involving pitot tube problems.
:arrow: Jet Sensors Are Probed in Brazilian Air Crash (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124411224440184797.html) [WSJ, no login needed]

[Matt Molnar]

Flight 447s ACARS messages:

http://www.nycaviation.com/hosting/acars447.png

[Tom_Turner]

Sorry to say, but there may never be a trace found of this airliner or anyone/anything that was on it.

In defense of Brazil & French authorities, the media is desperate for hourly and daily updates. Everything that *might* be or mean something is getting thrown out there before it has a chance to be vetted .... These guys need some time, and again, they may never find *anything*.

Gone... like Amelia Earhart.

Tom

[DHG750R]

Wow , looking at those ACARS messages. It it didnt come apart at altitude, they almost certainly lost control of it. Just about everything needed failed.

[Matt Molnar]

CNN reporting some bodies have been found.

[Delta777LR]

So far 2 bodies have been found.

[MarkLawrence]

According to MSNBC, another 3 bodies. I'm guessing they are close to the crash site, but with currents, weather, etc, it might be a big search area still.

[Matt Molnar]

http://www.fab.mil.br/portal/voo447/FOTOS/070609/foto_2.JPG

17 bodies now recovered according to Brazilian news agencies.

[MarkLawrence]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31151191/

Now a large section of the tail has been found - it looks like we are getting a little closer to knowing what might have happened...

[T-Bird76]

The tail looks like it snapped off pretty clean vs. being damaged upon impacting the water.

[moose135]

The tail looks like it snapped off pretty clean vs. being damaged upon impacting the water.
Reminds me of the photos the tail from AA587...

[Matt Molnar]

The first line of the ACARS warnings jumped out at me when I first saw it, and seeing the tail reinforces this. I haven't seen this explored anywhere else, have you guys?

F/CTL RUD TRV LIMIT FAULT
I'm pretty positive that means FLIGHT CONTROL RUDDER TRAVEL LIMIT FAULT.

The rudder moving too far would be the same thing that led to the demise of AA 587.

[mirrodie]

Given the wx conditions that are being considered, I personally feel that in being tossed about, that jet also lost its rudder.

RIP

[T-Bird76]

The computer on the A330 doesn't allow movement like that on the A300. Remember the A300 isn't fly by wire. Even when the A330 switched to alternate law the computer still wouldn't allow rudder movement like AA587. It is very interesting however why the break is so clean....

[Matt Molnar]

The computer on the A330 doesn't allow movement like that on the A300. Remember the A300 isn't fly by wire. Even when the A330 switched to alternate law the computer still wouldn't allow rudder movement like AA587. It is very interesting however why the break is so clean....
Supposedly, but the ACARS fault message would seem to indicate that it did travel too far for one reason or another, whether it was input from the crew or the result of high wind.

[DHG750R]

Looking at that picture, the 1st thought was AA587's tail. If true, that ECAM message might be a big clue. Most yaw dampers dont have the control authority to move the rudder more than a few degrees either way.
If the systems on the A330 are degraded to direct law, would that rudder limit protection still be there?

Just to throw something out there, has anyone thought of an uncommanded rudder movement leadint to the separation if the entire fin and loss of control?

[cancidas]

Just to throw something out there, has anyone thought of an uncommanded rudder movement leadint to the separation if the entire fin and loss of control?
at first no, but it's starting to make sense. could an electrical short have caused uncommanded rudder movements?

[T-Bird76]

Looking at that picture, the 1st thought was AA587's tail. If true, that ECAM message might be a big clue. Most yaw dampers dont have the control authority to move the rudder more than a few degrees either way.
If the systems on the A330 are degraded to direct law, would that rudder limit protection still be there?

Just to throw something out there, has anyone thought of an uncommanded rudder movement leadint to the separation if the entire fin and loss of control?

Direct law would cause the plane to do whatever the pilots wanted it to do, so no there would be no protection from that kind of rudder movement. I don't recall that the ARCAS messages indicated that plane went to Direct law.

[Matt Molnar]

Not just us anymore...CBS News is now reporting that it appears the tail was indeed sheared off by aerodynamic forces, and even compared it to the tail of AA587.

[Matt Molnar]

Two great articles...

Airline pilot/Salon.com columnist Patrick Smith describes his experiences flying through the ITCZ.
:arrow: Flight 447's perfect storm (http://www.salon.com/tech/col/smith/2009/06/08/storm/index.html)

Information Week examines the philosophy gap between Boeing's manually operated flight controls vs. Airbus's computer-reliant systems
:arrow: Computers Key To Air France Crash (http://www.informationweek.com/blog/main/archives/2009/06/computers_key_t.html;jsessionid=JK0W5GI0M0ANUQSNDL PCKHSCJUNN2JVN)

[T-Bird76]

Not just us anymore...CBS News is now reporting that it appears the tail was indeed sheared off by aerodynamic forces, and even compared it to the tail of AA587.

You can't compare the two so the min CBS did that they lost any creditability. BTW what does "aerodynamic forces" mean? For some reason it sounds like CBS is trying to use words they don't understand. Does that mean the tail came off while the plane was in stable flight because of the weather or did it come off as the plane dived into the ocean?

[Matt Molnar]

True.

[mirrodie]

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/ ... nnSTCVideo (http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/06/10/brazil.plane.crash/index.html#cnnSTCVideo)

[Matt Molnar]

France is now claiming two people sharing names with radical Muslims were on board. Hmm.

Could be legit. But they very likely knew this within hours of the crash, why announce it now?

For a few days after the crash, the weather was the leading culprit, but for the past week, nearly every new theory involves at least some negligence on the part of Air France and/or Airbus, which is, of course, based in France. Furthermore, the Paris Air Show takes place next week, traditionally an event where Airbus receives a large portion of their annual orders. This year they'll be lucky to earn any orders due to the economy, and this "tail fell off" stuff doesn't help their image.

[DHG750R]

In the very early hours following the plane's dissapearance, I had heard there was absolutely no chance of this being terrorism. I found that to be a bit premature considering we had no definitive evidence of anything at all .

I found this on bloomberg.com


The “black box” recorders from Flight 447, from Rio de Janeiro to Paris, may be lying at the bottom of the ocean, Brazilian Defense Minister Nelson Jobim said yesterday in Brasilia. He has ruled out terrorism as the cause.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... er=germany (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=ar4SCA212IZY&refer=germany)

Reading a lot of the press makes me think it almost seems as if Brasil is being quick to insist something like terroism couldnt be the cause, but it also highlights how officials are very quick to put ideas and guessees out there to a press who are hungry for a new angle on this accident.

read this for example.


Brazil, France Dispute Whether Debris Is From Air France Crash
Share | Email | Print | A A A

By John Hughes, Heloiza Canassa and Joshua Goodman

June 6 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian and French officials disagreed about whether debris in the Atlantic is from the Air France jet that crashed with 228 people on board, as planes and ships from both countries intensified the search.

Jose Ramos, a spokesman for Brazil’s Defense Ministry, said yesterday there is “no doubt” items spotted by the Brazilian air force are from the Airbus A330-200 that went missing this week on a flight from Rio de Janeiro to Paris. French officials said the country’s planes have been searching in the wrong area because no debris from the Air France flight has been found.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... in_america (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aArfgiIBT2SQ&refer=latin_america)


Darrell

[Matt Molnar]

Brazilian newspaper reporting that investigators now believe the plane broke up in the air. Of the first 16 victims examined, they were either naked or wearing minimal clothing, which would suggest their clothes were blown off by high wind. Bodies were found 53 miles apart, which could also be indication of a breakup. Furthermore, their lungs did not contain water, which indicates they died from impact and not drowning. Lack of burns means it is unlikely there was a bomb or explosion involved.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... _IAXADNn1c (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=as_IAXADNn1c)

[Matt Molnar]

French media reports a weak signal from the black boxes has been detected, sending mini subs to the area to search.

[afr022]

so they still have time to find the black boxes