US Northeast due for major hurricane: AccuWeather

[Matt Molnar]

US Northeast due for major hurricane: AccuWeather
Mon Mar 20, 2006 1:04 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The 2006 hurricane season will be more active than normal and could bring a devastating storm to the U.S. Northeast, private forecaster AccuWeather said on Monday.

The outlook comes after the most costly hurricane season on record in 2005, with storms crippling New Orleans and other parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast and briefly knocking out a quarter of domestic fuel production.

"There are now indications that the Northeast will experience a hurricane larger and more powerful than anything that region has seen in a long time," said Ken Reeves, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.com.

"The Northeast is staring down the barrel of a gun," said Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather.com's chief hurricane forecaster.

The current storm cycle and above-normal water temperatures in the Atlantic are reminiscent of the pattern that produced the 1938 hurricane that struck Providence, Rhode Island, killing 600 people, Bastardi said.

"The Northeast coast is long overdue for a powerful hurricane, and with the weather patterns and hydrology we're seeing in the oceans, the likelihood of a major hurricane making landfall in the Northeast is not a question of if but when," he said.

The Texas coast from Corpus Christi to the Louisiana border is also likely to be the target of higher than normal hurricane activity over the next 10 years, according to the forecast.

Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans and the Mississippi coast last August with winds above 135 mph and a 30-foot-high storm surge, causing more than $60 billion in damage.

Katrina was followed by Hurricanes Rita in Texas and Wilma in Florida. Each wreaked more than $10 billion of insured losses, making 2005 the most expensive year for hurricanes ever.

Bastardi said this year's storm activity will be above normal, but could be less active than 2005.

© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.

[T-Bird76]

We are looooong over do for a big hurricane and Long Island isn't nearly as prepared as New Orleans was, which gives you a good idea of what will happen here. If a Katrina level storm hit L.I you could kiss Fire Island and the South Shore good bye. Getting people off the island will also be totally impossible, it just won't happen. If there's one thing that does scare me its the idea of a large hurricane hitting Long Island, I just don't know what we'd do here.

[RDU-JFK]

How can they predict a storm of such magnitude? Were they able to predict that katrina would be as devastating as it was?

[UrbanExplorer222]

They say that as long as you live north of sunrise you wont be affected by flooding. Its really scary when you think about it, imagine JFK underwater :shock: half of the island in water. And the wind!! .. essshh just gives me the creeps thinking about it.

[T-Bird76]

They say that as long as you live north of sunrise you wont be affected by flooding. Its really scary when you think about it, imagine JFK underwater :shock: half of the island in water. And the wind!! .. essshh just gives me the creeps thinking about it.

The storm of 1938 did flood up to Sunrise Hwy but that wasn't as powerful as Katrina so the data is a bit off. One of our problems like New Orleans is we've developed the coast of Long Island to such an extent the natural wetlands which act as holding pens for flood waters have been developed. I live down near the water and at times I seriously consider moving father to the North Shore because of that reason.

[Ari707]

North of Sunrise you don't need flood insurance. I'm not as much worried about flooding as I am about wind, I know my roof will be a wreck....

[T-Bird76]

North of Sunrise you don't need flood insurance. I'm not as much worried about flooding as I am about wind, I know my roof will be a wreck....

Well believe it or not most places south of sunrise don't need flood insurance either. That was a huge problem during those bad rains back in Oct. Nobody around me had flood insurance and they all got screwed. I can't even fault these people for not having insurance because even my agent said I'd be wasting my money that I'm not in a flood zone, thank god I was alright but I have flood insurance now.

Think of this too, two of the largest hospitals on Long Island would be knocked out of service, both Good Sam and South Side would be flooded or totally inaccessible.

[Matt Molnar]

How can they predict a storm of such magnitude? Were they able to predict that katrina would be as devastating as it was?

A direct hit of even a category 1 or 2 storm would eff up Long Island really well, nevermind a Katrina-strength storm. The island has had lots of near misses and gotten pretty bad damage from some despite the storms drifting well to the east of Montauk. At some point a storm is bound to not turn out to sea before making a direct hit on Jersey, NYC, the island and/or Cape Cod.

The day before Katrina made landfall it was actually expected to be WORSE than what actually happened. The National Weather Service was expecting a direct hit on New Orleans with 160mph winds, which would have toppled skyscrapers and broken the leavees much sooner. In the end, Katrina landed a good distance east of New Orleans and the strongest winds in the city were under 110mph, and the city almost escaped serious damage. But despite weakening before landfall, the much stronger winds up to 175mph in the days before pushed an immense amount of water against the leavees, eventually causing them to fail.

[USAF Pilot 07]

Anything stronger than a Cat 1 or 2 Hurricane hitting L.I. or the Northeast for that matter, is extremely unlikely that it would be a once in a LIFETIME storm.
The perfect conditions would have to be present for a storm to be able to maintain Cat.3 intensity all the way until landfall..

If NYC or L.I. were to see a hurricane, it would most likely be a Category 1 storm at landfall.

What NYC and L.I. would suffer from if a hurricane hit would be heavy rain and flooding. NYC and LI could easily withstand a Cat 2 and even a minimal Cat 3 hurricane, in terms of wind, (we'd be talking about minor/moderate structural damage, tree damage, etc...) but the biggest threat is the flooding in low lying areas. All it takes is to get that water to rise to 10 feet and many places along LI would be in trouble...

This is just a ploy by Cracku... ehh i mean Accuweather, to get people to purchase their subscription service.

[T-Bird76]

Anything stronger than a Cat 1 or 2 Hurricane hitting L.I. or the Northeast for that matter, is extremely unlikely that it would be a once in a LIFETIME storm.
The perfect conditions would have to be present for a storm to be able to maintain Cat.3 intensity all the way until landfall..

If NYC or L.I. were to see a hurricane, it would most likely be a Category 1 storm at landfall.

What NYC and L.I. would suffer from if a hurricane hit would be heavy rain and flooding. NYC and LI could easily withstand a Cat 2 and even a minimal Cat 3 hurricane, in terms of wind, (we'd be talking about minor/moderate structural damage, tree damage, etc...) but the biggest threat is the flooding in low lying areas. All it takes is to get that water to rise to 10 feet and many places along LI would be in trouble...

This is just a ploy by Cracku... ehh i mean Accuweather, to get people to purchase their subscription service.

I really wouldn't take it to lightly. I can remember Hurricane Gloria which was a strong Cat 1 storm and it devastated Long Island especially the south shore, we didn't have power for two weeks roads were cut off and food supplies were rather limited, and this storm took place during low tide.

Today we have coastline that is much further developed, allot less wetlands and the same infrastructure we had when Gloria hit. If a storm like the 1938 Cat 3 hurricane hit us even if the chance is remote which I don't believe it is remote at all we'd be destroyed. Even a Cat 2 storm would produce devastating results.

The threat to Long Island is real and I'd rather be prepared and nothing happen then say the chance is once in a life time and not be prepared.

[Matt Molnar]

Anything stronger than a Cat 1 or 2 Hurricane hitting L.I. or the Northeast for that matter, is extremely unlikely that it would be a once in a LIFETIME storm.
The perfect conditions would have to be present for a storm to be able to maintain Cat.3 intensity all the way until landfall..

If NYC or L.I. were to see a hurricane, it would most likely be a Category 1 storm at landfall.

What NYC and L.I. would suffer from if a hurricane hit would be heavy rain and flooding. NYC and LI could easily withstand a Cat 2 and even a minimal Cat 3 hurricane, in terms of wind, (we'd be talking about minor/moderate structural damage, tree damage, etc...) but the biggest threat is the flooding in low lying areas. All it takes is to get that water to rise to 10 feet and many places along LI would be in trouble...

This is just a ploy by Cracku... ehh i mean Accuweather, to get people to purchase their subscription service.

My first thought was to take the article with a grain of salt, since while I've found Accuweather is usually pretty accurate, at the end of the day they need to make money and hyping the danger of hurricanes in the country's most densely populated region is a great way to get people to visit your site. I also know that you're studying meteorology and you know more about the science behind weather than I ever will. But in the past several months there have been so many extreme weather events in so many areas of the planet that I wouldn't rule anything out....the most Atlantic hurricanes in history, the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, blizzards in North Africa, record cold and snow in eastern Europe, a tropical storm hitting SPAIN, a tropical storm hitting BRAZIL, an unsusually strong cyclone hitting Australia, the biggest snowfall in New York City history, 106 inches of rain in a few days in Hawaii, 100 inches of snow in northern Japan. Almost every summer there's at least one decent storm going up the coast that gets close enough for Montauk and New York to be listed on the strike probabilities list. It's not that big a stretch to imagine one making a left instead of a right.

[USAF Pilot 07]

I agree with you, we have seen some "wacky" weather all around the world in the past few years, but these things come in cycles. The reason why many of these events stick out as being memorable to you and a lot of people is because they happened just recently. You can look back to "wetter" periods of the early 1900's, 1960's and 70's and draw similar parallels.

Just look back at US history, and you'll see that during Revolutionary War era, there are accounts of all of New York Harbor and the Hudson River being frozen and troops walking across the ice, not to mention Washington crossing the Delaware river, of which was partly frozen (something we haven't seen in decades). In the 1800's people were ice-skating on the Thames River in England, a river which NEVER freezes up.

A lot of what you're describing too is pattern. The rainy season in Hawaii falls at this time of the year. And the only island being significantly affected by these rains is the one furthest north (I forget the name). Sometimes, a pattern establishes itself and other features just aren't strong enough or aren't present to break it down.

I'm not saying NYC won't see a Category 3 or stronger storm sometime, but to say that we're "due" for one is a bit of a stretch. Will this season be stormier than last season's? All indications point to yes. This obviously increases our chances at a tropical cyclone, but like I've said it's extremely difficult for a hurricane, even in ideal conditions to make landfall in NYC or Long Island as a Category 3.

And it is a pretty big stretch to have a hurricane make a "left" (i.e. track in a significant westerly direction) instead of a "right" this far north. There are many large scale features, such as the Coriolis force, and the location of the ITCZ which aren't going away that help prevent this...

Just remember, weather comes in cycles. We're going to see extremes during each cycle, which will bring about wacky weather events and set records around the world. We are starting to see that it looks like we're in a warmer/wetter cycle in general all over the world, so these events, even though not expected, aren't extremely surprising.
We have a lot of evidence which helps us track these cycles back millions of years ago, but unfortunately only give us trends and not specific data. Still, currently, we're nowhere near some of the "extreme" patterns the earth has seen in the past million years...

[Tom_Turner]

We are looooong over do for a big hurricane and Long Island isn't nearly as prepared as New Orleans was, which gives you a good idea of what will happen here. If a Katrina level storm hit L.I you could kiss Fire Island and the South Shore good bye. Getting people off the island will also be totally impossible, it just won't happen. If there's one thing that does scare me its the idea of a large hurricane hitting Long Island, I just don't know what we'd do here.

Fire Island is practically a sand bar isn't it? It would be all but gone.

[Tom_Turner]

<<Just remember, weather comes in cycles.>>

Yes, it does. The Hudson (much of it) would freeze in the winters in the 1960s, 1970s ... not completely, but major ice throughout especially as you moved north.

Jamaica Bay froze up pretty well in 1977 as well.

[Tom_Turner]

We are looooong over do for a big hurricane and Long Island isn't nearly as prepared as New Orleans was, >>

I agree with you Tommy. It could be a catastrophe for Long Island. But at least you guys are not below sea level to begin with.

[Steven Holzinger]

The Weather Channel did something on what would happen if a hurricane were to hit NYC today... I forget the name of their series but I think it's called "It Could Happen Tomorrow".

[Tower Air]

Yeah that's it..

[LGA777]

Just found this thread and wanted to share my experience with Hurricane Gloria in 1985. My employer (Northeastern) had gone out of business but had just restarted operations with one leased UA 727-222 and after several better offers I reluctantly returned to them as Station Mgr ISP. All my stuff was still in Florida and I was living (for a few months) out of a suitcase at some mom and pop motel on Vets Highway just east of the Terminal. As I could not see riding out the Hurricane alone in my motel room I chose to stay at the airport. There ended up being a very fun Hurricane party in the Bar/Restaurant that is just above the main terminal at ISP. I reasoned that if the those Huge Picture windows could withstand a 727's jet blast when they powered out they could withstand a Hurricane and they did no problem. There where about 20 of us up there for about 15 hours and all drinks and limited food where FREE ! Watching the storm cross the airport and the complete destruction of the Hudson General Hangar and numerous light aircraft inside was one of the most amazing things I ever witnessed. I had never seen the Force of Nature like that and hope to never again ! When the storm ended I returned to the Motel to find about 2 inches of water in my first floor room. The lack of carpet kept the aggravation minimal. If your still reading this thanks for letting me rant !

Regards

LGA777

[T-Bird76]

Wow that's an amazing story Ron! Where was the Hudson General hangar? BTW who was serving ISP during that time?

[LGA777]

The Hudson General Hangar was to the west of the Terminal and near the FAA Tower, if you look it the large white hangar in that area in Derf's photo below, I believe that is the replacement Hangar ?

http://www.jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=184332


As far as service in the Summer of 1985 I will try and remember as much as I can

AA; 2 or 3 a day to ORD, can't remember if 727 or S80's.
EA: couple of 72S's to FLL and I think MCO, they at the time where worked entirely by USAir.
US: Pretty big operation(maybe 20 flights a day) with a mix of equipment including Shorts, BAC-111's, DC-9's, 737-200's, and one 727-200 at night operating DCA-ISP-ALB, with the DC-9 being the most common.
QS; Our one 727-222 had a different schedule for each day of the week but we served ISP,PHL,MCO,PIE,PBI and FLL all from ISP. When the UA strike ended and UA wanted N7297U back our ops where sub-serviced by
both Emerald Air and All Star both operating DC-9-10's but that's another story. There where numerous commuter carriers then all handled by Pilgrim, who operated F-27 and Twin Otters.
Precision. D0-228's (ugly)
Ramsome Dash 7's (not ugly)
Henson (PI Commuter) Short 330's (again ugly).
Possibly Command with Shorts but not sure on that one, it was almost 21 years ago so I am doing the best I can !

Hope this helps ?

Cheers

Ron Peel

[Matt Molnar]

Some non-Accuweather peeps weigh in...


Forecasts: Northeast Due for Big Hurricane
Mar 27 7:37 PM US/Eastern

DOVER, N.H.

New England could be in for a big one. Meteorologists say conditions _ including warmer temperatures in the Atlantic Basin and cooler temperatures in the Pacific Ocean _ are ripe for the Northeast coast to be hit by a whopper of a hurricane this season.

Ken Reeves, a senior meteorologist at the AccuWeather Center in State College, Pa., said that when the Pacific is cooler, it "essentially drives the storm track further to the east in the Atlantic Ocean basin."



He predicts the East Coast north of the Mid-Atlantic states could see a Category 3 hurricane, a storm that could resemble the devastating systems that hit New England between the 1930s and 1950s.

"There are some eerie similarities to the pattern of the 1938 hurricane," he said.

A 1938 storm known as the "The Long Island Express" remains the region's worst hurricane. Its 121 mph winds gusted to 183 mph and caused massive flooding, power outages and wind damage throughout the region, leaving 600 people dead.

During recent decades, New Englanders mostly have experienced only the remnants of storms that hit other parts of the country, such as Hurricane Gloria in 1985 and Hurricane Bob in 1991, which brought heavy rains, localized flooding and power outages.

If a big storm did hit, the New Hampshire coast might be spared the worst of the damage because it is sheltered compared to areas like Cape Cod, Portland, Maine, and Long Island, N.Y., Reeves said.

Lourdes Aviles, a Plymouth State University assistant meteorology professor, said Reeves' forecast sounds right. That New England hasn't had a strong hurricane in 50 years could signal the region's luck is running out, she said.

John Jensenius, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Gray, Maine, said his group has been concerned for years that a strong hurricane could strike New England's coast.

Hurricane activity tends to be cyclical, he said. Every 50 years, a pattern develops that increases the potential for a major storm. But that doesn't mean a storm is imminent.

"The chances of one happening this year is no greater than it was last year," Jensenius said.

[USAF Pilot 07]

Too bad they left maybe the most relevant quote for the end there:

""The chances of one happening this year is no greater than it was last year," Jensenius said"

Sure the conditions may be more favorable, but to say that the Northeast is "due" for a BIG hurricane or that one is "imminent" is a little extreme, especially when this guy concludes with the above statement....

[Matt Molnar]

Some more "sky is falling" fodder from the Post.... :D


WE'D BE SUNK IN A 'CANE

By ANGELA MONTEFINISE

March 26, 2006 -- Emergency planners faced with the daunting prospect of a monster hurricane hitting New York this summer - and scrambling to fix their evacuation blueprints - are forced to rely on 15-year-old data for parts of their strategy.

Emergency management officials in both the city and its suburbs use a 1993 study by the Army Corps of Engineers to create disaster response plans - a study based on 1990 census figures.

The Corps won't complete an updated study until 2008.

"These studies are what hurricane evacuation plans are based on," said Allan McDuffie, a retired Army Corps of Engineers manager who is still working part-time on the new study. "The information that they're using for decision making and sheltering [is] outdated."

In New York City, the population has surged almost 10 percent since 1990, and the number of people who live in flood zones increased from 1.1 million to between 2.2 million and 2.4 million.

The nerve-racking assessments come in the wake of last week's declaration from AccuWeather chief forecaster Joe Bastardi that "the Northeast coast is long overdue for a powerful hurricane," saying it's "not a question of if but when."

The experts say in the case of a Category 3 or higher storm:

* All of Manhattan below Canal Street would be underwater. Battery Park City would get hit the worst, inundated by 20 feet of water.

* On Long Island, Fire Island would be at highest risk, and the whole island would have to be evacuated.

* Jamaica Bay would get 30-foot storm surges, leaving Kennedy Airport under 19 feet of water. La Guardia Airport would be under 5 feet of water.

* Both Yankee Stadium and Shea Stadium would experience flooding, and Coney Island would be hit with 20-foot storm surges.

* The Rockaways - which actually lost an entire island to the massive hurricane of 1893 - would see 27-foot storm surges and "basically be totally covered in water," McDuffie said.

"All of the coastline of New York would be in trouble," McDuffie said.