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Matt Molnar
09-11-2005, 11:26 AM
For what it's worth, the latest advisories on Hurricane Ophelia from the National Hurricane Center forecast a track in which the storm hits the outer banks of North Carolina on Wednesday, and then heads off shore and north in our direction. The storm has been mostly stationary, meandering off the coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina for the nearly a week, fluctuating in intensity between a strong tropical storm and a weak hurricane. It should be noted, however, that the forecasts of this storm so far have changed significantly from day to day...for a couple of days the forecast was having it hit the northeastern Florida Coast and Georgia, and as late as yesterday they had it plowing straight into South Carolina...thing is, the computer models were in strong disagreement and each forecasted a wildly different track. The computers now seem to be converging on a track taking it up toward us, and the official human forecast is agreeing with that.

The images below should update automatically as new advisories are issued:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL1605W5+gif/205509W_sm.gif

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200516_model.gif

T-Bird76
09-11-2005, 03:10 PM
Good news is the waters up here really have cooled off so the chances of it becoming stronger are very slim. Also if it keeps its current track Long Island should be on the western side of the eye wall which is the weaker side. If anything we should just get some rain and wind, and for me a nice bumpy flight to Boston on Thursday.

PhilDernerJr
09-11-2005, 03:22 PM
I just hope it clears before the weekend.

RDU-JFK
09-11-2005, 09:09 PM
I'm in Durham, NC...no one seems to be that worried, and the storm weakened a bit today. The OBX of NC are still on edge though.

Steven Holzinger
09-11-2005, 09:50 PM
I hope its clear away from VA Beach by Friday, considering I'm going down for an airshow!

Matt Molnar
09-11-2005, 10:16 PM
Despite this being a very marginal storm, in the wake of Katrina, the NC government is flipping out, ordering mandatory evacuations of hundreds of people on the coast, declaring a state of emergency, and activating the National Guard.

T-Bird76
09-11-2005, 10:20 PM
OK GothamSpotter I'm not liking what I'm seeing with its projected path now!! This dam thing better stay far away from L.I. I still have my boat in the water. Dam hurricanes!!!

Ethan
09-12-2005, 04:34 PM
IMO, the path has gotten better and better....