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Thread: Significant Risk of Nor'easter This Week

  1. #1
    Moderator Matt Molnar's Avatar
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    Significant Risk of Nor'easter This Week

    Another Nor'easter is expected to make its way up the coast this week.

    40-50 mph winds, moderate coastal flooding and heavy rain can be expected along the coast, with heavy snowfall further inland Wednesday and Thursday.

    Some areas where Sandy destroyed protective dunes, particularly on the Jersey Shore because of the wind direction, will be more vulnerable to coastal flooding than usual for a storm this size.

    Here's the 4 day Euro model.

    Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem.
    All four engines have stopped. We are doing our damnedest to get them under control.
    I trust you are not in too much distress. —Captain Eric Moody, British Airways Flight 9

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    Moderator Matt Molnar's Avatar
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    Newer models are moving the storm further east, which could mean slightly less wind and surf, but greater likelihood of snow on the coast.

    There are already high wind watches in effect for south Jersey and a coastal flood watch for all of NJ.
    Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem.
    All four engines have stopped. We are doing our damnedest to get them under control.
    I trust you are not in too much distress. —Captain Eric Moody, British Airways Flight 9

  3. #3
    Senior Member yankees368's Avatar
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    I made a quick comparison photo of the flooding from Irene as opposed to Sandy. Same location.
    Follow me on Twitter and friend me on Facebook.

  4. #4
    Moderator Matt Molnar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by yankees368 View Post
    I made a quick comparison photo of the flooding from Irene as opposed to Sandy. Same location.
    Crazy.
    Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem.
    All four engines have stopped. We are doing our damnedest to get them under control.
    I trust you are not in too much distress. —Captain Eric Moody, British Airways Flight 9

  5. #5
    Moderator Matt Molnar's Avatar
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    The high wind watch now includes NYC, LI, Connecticut. Calls for sustained winds of 25-35 mph with gusts to 70 mph.
    Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem.
    All four engines have stopped. We are doing our damnedest to get them under control.
    I trust you are not in too much distress. —Captain Eric Moody, British Airways Flight 9

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    Senior Member NIKV69's Avatar
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    This sucks! Just what we need.
    'My idea of a good picture is one that's in focus and of a famous person doing something unfamous.' Andy Warhol

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    Moderator Matt Molnar's Avatar
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    Not only will it potentially cause more outages in places that just got their power back, it could delay ongoing repairs of existing outages by at least a day, as the guys in the cherry pickers will be forced down by the high winds.
    Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem.
    All four engines have stopped. We are doing our damnedest to get them under control.
    I trust you are not in too much distress. —Captain Eric Moody, British Airways Flight 9

  8. #8
    I am a tad disappointed that the Utilities cannot engineer their stuff any better. I rather pay a bit more monthly if that is needed to re-engineer some stuff to withstand storms/flooding. But they rather go cheap, let us bitch and moan, as eventually anger dissipates with time.

  9. #9
    Administrator PhilDernerJr's Avatar
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    Whitese, I'm not sure what you're referring to or suggesting they do differently. Downed trees can't be stopped, aren't their responsibility, and cause a lot of the trouble. Underground networks are also susceptible to flooding and other challenging maintenance issues.
    Email me anytime at [email protected].

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    Senior Member NIKV69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil D. View Post
    Whitese, I'm not sure what you're referring to or suggesting they do differently. Downed trees can't be stopped, aren't their responsibility, and cause a lot of the trouble. Underground networks are also susceptible to flooding and other challenging maintenance issues.
    Not to mention the cost is not even measurable and nobody would want to pay for it.
    'My idea of a good picture is one that's in focus and of a famous person doing something unfamous.' Andy Warhol

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    Senior Member moose135's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Whitese View Post
    I am a tad disappointed that the Utilities cannot engineer their stuff any better. I rather pay a bit more monthly if that is needed to re-engineer some stuff to withstand storms/flooding. But they rather go cheap, let us bitch and moan, as eventually anger dissipates with time.
    Hard to engineer power lines that will stand up against a tree falling on them. Putting them underground cost much more to install than overhead wires, and comes with problems of its own. LIPA estimates burying all the power lines on Long Island would cost $25 billion and take 30 years to complete. A 2005 study by LIPA actually estimated the cost at $33 billion, and would more than double the average electric bill.

    A repair job isn't just a few guys in a bucket truck - it means digging up streets, sidewalks or your yard, then repairing that as well, so in most cases, repairs would take longer. Underground wires do not last as long as above ground, and are also susceptible to flooding. Remember - Manhattan has underground utilities, and the power went out there as well.

  12. #12
    Moderator mirrodie's Avatar
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    John, glad you brought up those numbers as I was going ot air them on fb. Yes Lipa claims in wont bury wires as it would cost 30 billion.


    Yet, I have to ask myself, how much in pay and overtime did Gloria, the 93 Noreaster, Irene and Sandy cost added all up?
    I wonder but I doubt we'd get an accurate sense of the nubmers yet I am sure they would justify burying those lines.

    That said, the 30 years figure is bull****. You call in workers like theyve subcontracted out and you get it done. 5 years is a more accurate figure.

    That said, as some here know, our house is on the market. We are near the highest point of the island as we dont want to deal with the water. BUT in considring neighborhoods, "no overhead lines" was a big point for us on a new home. But having seen that underground lines DID fail, its not a huge point.

    I also stated on FB recently that Im not going to piss my money on a generator. Buying a generator would ahve only bought me 3 to 5 hours waiting in line for gas. Seriously? WTF?
    From my post:
    I'm telling you we need to keep WORKING on battery backup solutions. The more players that are out there, the cheaper the technology would get. It's not going to happen overnight but it has to be done. This happened with Gloria, what, how many years ago, at least 25? We are dealing with the same exact crap that we dealt with 25 years ago. A week of the dark ages.

    The only difference now is that more people need generators---> and thus gas; But today's gas pumps rely on electricity!!!
    No electricity = gas can't be pumped + oil tankers barred from port = gas lines like the 70s.

    Its Appalling. LOOK at our insane ****ing dependence on gas!!!! Meanwhile our "friends" in Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan and Pakistan are likely laughin at us waiting for oil. Oh look, the dumb ass Americans are going through the same **** they went through in the 1970s. When do those *******s ever learn???""

    Oh and we are so eager to help them and throw our money their way. Have they scratched our back yet?


    As far as solar energy and battery backups being too expensive for most Americans, I'm sure when they spend upwards of 3 to 5 hours waiting in gas lines, And being limited to 10 gallons of rationed gas, suddenly the wheels start to turn.

    But sadly, this too shall pass and we dumb ass Americans will forget about it in 3 months and go back to the same routine.


    I did some searching and was leaning toward a diesel generator. Finally I may have found a viable solar back up solution. Solar is clean and reliable and available. Its more expensive as well. But worth it.

    I bought 2 pair of leather shoes about 6 years ago. Both over over $350 a pair. They still look brand new and yet cost me less than the $95 Kenneth Coles I had that lasted me 9 friggin months. The initial investment cost more BUT has SAVED money over the years.

    RANT OVER!
    And I, I took the path less traveled by
    and that has made all the difference......yet...
    I have a feeling a handle of people are going to be very interested in what I post in the near future.

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  13. #13
    I hear ya! I was reading though that there are ways for shoring up some hardware. Wires, yeah, only so much you can do. but transformers in poles, substations, etc...common!

  14. #14
    Administrator Landing Lights's Avatar
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    Again, there's a lot more to it though. Electrical components like transformers don't like to be subjected to the unrestricted flow of electricity that occurs when lines arc to themselves or to ground. That unrestricted flow causes too much energy to flow through things like transformers, in turn causing excess heat that cannot be managed effectively. This heat causes a breakdown in parts intended to keep electricity on its own path, and once that breakdown occurs bad things happen. All of the transformer related problems in a storm are likely caused by outside effects such as wiring problems. That tree that just snapped 2 wires and dropped them both into the same puddle is the root cause of the nearby transformer exploding.

    What worries me most with this storm is that especially in the hardest hit areas there may have been temporary repairs done to get service restored to an area. This is not an uncommon route to take post storm as the resources to perform a proper long-term repair may not be available. All of those out of state crews that you see working don't come cheap by any means. I forget the amount but it was several hundred dollars per hour for a crew of two linesmen in a truck. A repair designed to last weeks or months can be performed, and then the local crews can come back later on when they aren't piling on the OT to do a repair that will last for years. This method keeps the utility's overall costs down while restoring service more quickly. We had a large branch fall on the lines near my house over the summer during a storm. The local utility did a temporary repair to get us through the night, bypassing several poles and leaving wires far closer to the road then normal. Once the remainder of the tree had been removed, the crews came back and properly finished the job, without needing to disrupt power to anybody but those in the immediate vicinity. Just that repair from 1 branch took probably 18-30 hours and 3 trucks to complete. That meant it was probably well above 100 man-hours of work. It is these temporary repairs that would be the most likely to fail in a new storm since they may be strung through trees or otherwise. On the plus side, given the severity of the recent storm, outages may be less common in areas where there aren't temporary repairs since there are fewer branches that are prone to breakage in high winds.
    Ben Granucci, Wappingers Falls, NY
    NYCAviation Senior Editor & Director
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  15. #15
    I understand the complexities and random nature of the damage caused by wind and trees....But it seems to me that it's about what do we think is a priority to invest in and improve. The same way we spent billions of dollars for road, bridge, etc repair, we could do something with our electrical grid. Whats the point of being technologically advanced if your primary power source for all the wonders of modern life is so vulnerable.

    There has to be some better way, but I guess we don't feel like addressing it yet, as a society, or initiatives are killed at conception by the powers above in Gov't and Moguls of industry.

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