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Thread: National Weather Service Says TS Sandy a "Powerhouse...of Historical Events"

  1. #1
    Administrator PhilDernerJr's Avatar
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    National Weather Service Says TS Sandy a "Powerhouse...of Historical Events"

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discuss...sion=0&fmt=reg
    THE 12Z/23 ECMWF STILL INCORPORATES AN EXTREMELY DEEPPOST-TROPICAL SANDY INTO THE MID-LEVEL PIVOT POINT OF THE POLARJET IN THE VICINITY OF LONG ISLAND EARLY NEXT TUESDAY, THE DYNAMICTRANSFER RESULTING IN A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 932MB.THEREIN LIES THE STORM'S MENACE- A POWERHOUSE CAPABLE OF WHIPPINGTHE ATLANTIC INTO A FRENZY AND CHURNING UP DANGEROUS TIDES. OFPARTICULAR NOTE IS THE COINCIDENCE OF THE FULL MOON ON SUNDAY,OFTEN A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN HISTORICAL EVENTS.
    Are these guys writing a weather forecast or a Stephen King novel?
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  2. #2
    Senior Member yankees368's Avatar
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    Wait a second. Just 2 hours ago they were saying it was headed out into the ocean, and only the EU model was showing impact over LI?
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    Moderator Matt Molnar's Avatar
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    Last I saw a few models show it curling into LI/New England, but the others have it blowing out to sea. I did read one forecaster who thinks the conditions are similar to two previous storms, both of which veered off into the Atlantic. Still a very long time away for computers or humans to say anything with much certainty.

    Note: The 932 MB they mention is equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane.
    Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem.
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    Senior Member Mateo's Avatar
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    932mb is 27.53", which is some serious, serious stuff. For comparison, when Irene made landfall in New York, it was 965mb, or 28.50"

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    Administrator PhilDernerJr's Avatar
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    True or not, I just feel it's way too early to forecast like that.
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  6. #6
    ugh .. lets hope this moves out to sea .. I do not feel like a storm with potential for 10"+ of rain

  7. #7
    Moderator Matt Molnar's Avatar
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    Most of the models seem to be in agreement now that the storm will make landfall somewhere between Delaware and Maine. The official NWS HPC forecast now shows a direct hit on NYC. Wunderground's Jim Masters now gives it only a 30% chance of missing the US completely and says it could generate the heaviest October rain in the history of the northeast.

    Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem.
    All four engines have stopped. We are doing our damnedest to get them under control.
    I trust you are not in too much distress. —Captain Eric Moody, British Airways Flight 9

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    Senior Member AirtrafficController's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil D. View Post
    True or not, I just feel it's way too early to forecast like that.
    Totally Agree. These forecast models are generally accurate to only 24-48 hours ahead of the predicted storm path.
    As of right now, its a media hayride.
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    Well hurricane Irene turned out to be a dud for the NYC area, not to mention that this time NOBODY will take this threat seriously and prepare in advance after the media went into overdrive portraying Irene as the mother of all storms....
    You will never know what you will be capable of until you try

  10. #10
    Administrator PhilDernerJr's Avatar
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    Sandy expecting to deliver Tropical Storm conditions to Eastern Florida Thursday morning.

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    Quote Originally Posted by alberchico View Post
    Well hurricane Irene turned out to be a dud for the NYC area, not to mention that this time NOBODY will take this threat seriously and prepare in advance after the media went into overdrive portraying Irene as the mother of all storms....
    A dud? seriously? my street was under water.
    It's hard to take chances but sometimes it's better if you do

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  12. #12
    most of the tracks have it coming close enough to LI that even if we dont get a direct hit we will get wind/rain. I just hope its not more than a few inches.

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    Senior Member moose135's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by eric8669 View Post
    A dud? seriously? my street was under water.
    I was without power for 2 days. Some friends were without power for up to a week.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene#New_York
    In Manhattan, the Hudson River flooded in the Meatpacking District. Long Beach and Freeport, both of which experienced serious flooding, were among the worst-hit towns on Long Island, and many roads were left impassable. The winds knocked down many trees and power lines, leaving almost 350,000 homes and businesses without power in Nassau and Suffolk counties. Flooding of the Ramapo River and more than a half-mile of washouts led both Metro-North and NJ Transit to suspend service on the Port Jervis Line north of Suffern for nearly three months.
    Maybe NYC didn't get hit with 150mph winds, and we didn't see a 40 foot wall of water crashing down the streets of Lower Manhattan, but there was plenty of damage done in this area, not to mention even more extensive damage upstate and through New England. Irene was hardly a "dud" of a storm.

  14. #14
    i dont know why, but this storm has me more nervous than the last one ... what do you guys think?

  15. #15
    Senior Member yankees368's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by puckstopper55 View Post
    i dont know why, but this storm has me more nervous than the last one ... what do you guys think?
    Media hype (I hope)
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