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Thread: Tracking Hurricane Irene

  1. #31
    Senior Member Fighting_falcon_51's Avatar
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    The new NHC product shows the storm even more west now. Also the wind probability has been upgraded.
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  2. #32
    Administrator PhilDernerJr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAF Pilot 07 View Post
    When dealing with storms we (weather guys) divide them into quadrants. In hurricanes, it's common to split the storm into 4 equal sized quadrants.

    The right front quadrant of a hurricane (i.e. north and east of the center of circulation) is generally the worst quadrant of a storm. This is where a lot of the intense precipitation associated with the storm is located and where stronger winds and conditions favorable for tornadic development is present. Also, more "important" in this case, is that due to the anti-cyclonic flow of a low pressure system (counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere), the storm surge experienced by those in the right front quadrant generally tends to the be worse than in another quadrants.

    This is why it will be very bad for Long Island for this storm to track west of Long Island, but East of NYC. Even if this becomes somewhat of an inland runner, the low pressure of the system, the associated onshore winds of the system and the fact that this could hit during a full moon at high tide could be devastating for coastal sections on Long Island.

    The only way this storms becomes a lower threat is if it starts tracking very far inland, somehow takes a sharp turn out to sea or completely falls apart due to strong upper level shearing - scenarios that appear very unlikely.
    This is absolutely correct, but for others that are learning, "right-front" is only Northeast in this case because the storm is moving north. When hurricanes are moving west, for example, the "right front" is the northwest corner.
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  3. #33
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    This is going to be really bad. Everyone please be safe.
    It's hard to take chances but sometimes it's better if you do

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  4. #34
    Senior Member Fighting_falcon_51's Avatar
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    With the new 8PM models just out, it looks like the storm moved further west again and it looks like it will brush land from NC all the way up. For our forum weather experts - Does it look like it can lose a lot of strength in the amount of time between hitting NC and hitting NY?
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  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fighting_falcon_51 View Post
    With the new 8PM models just out, it looks like the storm moved further west again and it looks like it will brush land from NC all the way up. For our forum weather experts - Does it look like it can lose a lot of strength in the amount of time between hitting NC and hitting NY?
    I'm by no means a weather expert, but with the storm only skirting the coastline with the center of the storm staying over land it won't lose a lot of its potency. The part of the storm that draws all the moisture in off the ocean to fuel it will still be mostly over water unfortunately.
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  6. #36
    Administrator PhilDernerJr's Avatar
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    The land temps have been cool, which hopefully will slow it down (hurricanes thrive on warm temps). It's somewhat early, but I'm seeing forecasts that have the eye passing through the shore of New Jersey at 3pm on Sunday with 86mph winds and 103mph gusts.

    Again, it's early. I think whatever we here Saturday will of course let us know if we need to start changing our underwear. Regardless, I plan on stocking up on supplies TOMORROW. Get it done EARLY. Be safe now instead of sorry later.
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  8. #38
    Senior Member Fighting_falcon_51's Avatar
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    It looks like we will get hit when it is in between a CAT 1 and CAT 2. Also it looks like we will see it early Sunday until late Sunday night.

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  9. #39
    Administrator PhilDernerJr's Avatar
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    Ha, you think that map is scary? This one shows Irene cleared to the ILS RWY 4L approach...

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  10. #40
    Senior Member Fighting_falcon_51's Avatar
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    I don't know if I should laugh or be really concerned at that one.
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  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phil D. View Post
    The land temps have been cool, which hopefully will slow it down (hurricanes thrive on warm temps). It's somewhat early, but I'm seeing forecasts that have the eye passing through the shore of New Jersey at 3pm on Sunday with 86mph winds and 103mph gusts.

    Again, it's early. I think whatever we here Saturday will of course let us know if we need to start changing our underwear. Regardless, I plan on stocking up on supplies TOMORROW. Get it done EARLY. Be safe now instead of sorry later.
    Good Luck

  12. #42
    Senior Member Zee71's Avatar
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    Currently in Orlando here on business...........today (Thur) just had a few gusts and a outer band of rain this morning, otherwise nothing earth shaking! Flying back home Friday late afternoon to LGA. Hopefully, I am able to get back home to batten down the hatches. Everyone stay safe.
    Mark
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  13. #43
    Moderator mirrodie's Avatar
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    Phil, enjoyed a bit of a laugh.

    Well, We're as preparedas we're gonna be. May tape up the windows and bring the patio set into the garage but otherwise enjoying tomorrow.
    And I, I took the path less traveled by
    and that has made all the difference......yet...
    I have a feeling a handle of people are going to be very interested in what I post in the near future.

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  14. #44
    Senior Member hiss srq's Avatar
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    City Of Long Beach has instituted a voluntary evacuation now, however, I anticipate that it will turn into a full fledged mandetory as of tomorrow night some time around the close of business.
    Southwest Airlines-"Once it pop's it's time to stop" Southwest Airlines-"Our Shamu's are almost real" Southwest Airlines -"We blow our top real easy" Southwest Airlines- "You can't top us..... really"

  15. #45
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    Wishing you all the best of luck, please stay safe up there.
    Adam Sheinhaus

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