Tracking Hurricane Irene

[steve1840]

I'm very concerned by the path of this storm. Latest forecast has this if it hits us hitting us as a Cat 2. This is one on thing in life that truly scares me. I really hope it passes well east of us. In any event if it doesn't I hope everyone in its path stays safe.

The path of this storm has me concerned as well T-Bird. When I checked the latest forecast track (I know its an estimate right now), it had the center of the storm passing right over the city where the office I work at is which is only 15 miles from my house. Not really any weather scares me, but this definitely concerns me. I have been through a couple hurricanes, but I was a kid at the time and what seemed fun and exciting then definitely does seem worrisome now. Hopefully all goes well, and the storm passes off to the east and little to no damage results.

[hiss srq]

I am very worried about it, my current house is bay front in Long Beach and I am closing on a new one as of the second week in September. My new house is beach front in the west end where the distance between the ocean and the bay is around 1,000 feet at the max. If this storm is greater than a Cat 1 Long Beach will literaly be wiped off of the map. I'm pretty scared. I have not decided if we are going to fly to Sarasota or drive to Vermont at this point but those are the two places I am anticipating my evacuation too at this point pending forcast.

[Fighting_falcon_51]

I may be overly optimistic but this looks like Hurricane Earl Part II.

Now it's time for some anxiety inducing BS Weather channel coverage!!!!!



Honestly it looks like it's going to be another non-event. New NHC products show the storm clipping the east end (similar to Earl) and maybe giving western LI and NYC a mild nor easter like storm.

But who knows, I may be regretting this post later on.

EDIT: One thing I am worried about is the possible storm surge, especially for the south shore.

[MarkLawrence]

8pm track had it a little more west again. I'm sure everyone has their own tracking sites - the one I use - which has an abundance of information is www.spaghettimodels.com - he gains information from a lot of sites and puts it on one page.

Preparedness is the only thing - we were prepared for Irene from the first day she was born - but - she is missing us now - will be watching carefully for you guys up north though...

[cancidas]

One thing I am worried about is the possible storm surge, especially for the south shore.

same thing that worries me, my houses are only 8ft above sea level and the basement is prone to flooding in heavy rains. ruh roh...

[Fighting_falcon_51]

same thing that worries me, my houses are only 8ft above sea level and the basement is prone to flooding in heavy rains. ruh roh...

Yeah, it hurts just about everyone because coastal areas are supposed to have record high tides and that is about the time they could get hit with a storm surge. Also the ground has been saturated and that could cause more flooding and/or downed trees.

[MarkLawrence]

Looks like the latest information has it hitting the coast of North Carolina which will diminish the storm quite a bit - bring it over you guys as a category 1 or even a tropical storm - a lot better than a direct hit as a category 2....

[steve1840]

That certainly is good news Mark. At least the winds won't be as bad, but some of you guys still have the storm surge to worry about. Hopefully it isn't too bad on Long Island.

[MarkLawrence]

The 11am track has moved west a little more - the more west - the less you guys will get!!! It's looking a little better still....

[Matt Molnar]

The 11am track has moved west a little more - the more west - the less you guys will get!!! It's looking a little better still....

Storm surge could actually be much worse if it moves west. Water would be pushed into the corner formed by LI meeting the mainland and the water has nowhere to go.

[MarkLawrence]

Storm surge could actually be much worse if it moves west. Water would be pushed into the corner formed by LI meeting the mainland and the water has nowhere to go.

Wow - didn't realize that Matt - not knowing NY that well - didn't think of that - was only thinking of the wind force.

[Fighting_falcon_51]

For people in Suffolk.

For those of you who are concerned about the losing power and may not have a weather radio handy I suggest signing up for Code RED. This is like the EAS for your phone so if there is an active emergency and automated service will call you and give you the details. This service is great and it's free!

Note: I was able to sign up last night but right now their servers are on overload, I would keep trying.

[T-Bird76]

The 11am track has moved west a little more - the more west - the less you guys will get!!! It's looking a little better still....

Mark the further west this goes unless it goes all the way inland makes it much much worse for us. If this storm's eye passes over Queens which is the latest track, Long Island will be devastated by 100+mph wind. There will be a huge storm surge to the north shore areas of the city and Long Island. The best case would be for this storm to move east with its eye crossing over the twin forks or off shore. However that does not seem to be the case right now and as things stand we are facing the worst case scenario.

At this point I am very concerned and afraid of what's coming our way. The thought of losing what you worked for doesn't sit well with me. Insurance or not some items can never be replaced.

[megatop412]

I remember Gloria in '85. We lost some trees and had some minor basement flooding. As long as it isn't worse than that, things shouldn't be too terribly bad. Although, as I'm reading, apparently it came ashore on the Island at low tide and with not an incredible amount of rain. The opposite of what is now being predicted with the effect of the moon adding into it as well.

If it turns into something crazy for real I'll be coming up there to get my Mom out of Lawrence if she insists on "riding it out"

[USAF Pilot 07]

When dealing with storms we (weather guys) divide them into quadrants. In hurricanes, it's common to split the storm into 4 equal sized quadrants.

The right front quadrant of a hurricane (i.e. north and east of the center of circulation) is generally the worst quadrant of a storm. This is where a lot of the intense precipitation associated with the storm is located and where stronger winds and conditions favorable for tornadic development is present. Also, more "important" in this case, is that due to the anti-cyclonic flow of a low pressure system (counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere), the storm surge experienced by those in the right front quadrant generally tends to the be worse than in another quadrants.

This is why it will be very bad for Long Island for this storm to track west of Long Island, but East of NYC. Even if this becomes somewhat of an inland runner, the low pressure of the system, the associated onshore winds of the system and the fact that this could hit during a full moon at high tide could be devastating for coastal sections on Long Island.

The only way this storms becomes a lower threat is if it starts tracking very far inland, somehow takes a sharp turn out to sea or completely falls apart due to strong upper level shearing - scenarios that appear very unlikely.