Hurricane Earl

[PhilDernerJr]

Hurricane Earl Winds 145MPH moving NNW at 21MPH. Not good. Not good at all. Models are showing it to get closer to the tip of LI now. It is now also forcasted to be a stronger hurricane when it reaches us...

Honestly, with each post that you say it is getting more scary, the more the storm seems to calm and be easier to deal with. Please post a link or cite a source for future posts if you intend on scaring people by saying it's going to get stronger as it nears LI....as everyone I know has heard the opposite.

[MarkLawrence]

Latest NOAA track shows the Tropical Storm warning for LI and surrounding areas. According to this, winds will be between 74 and 110mph when it's around that area - a Cat 1 or Cat 2 storm. Seems funny for us here in Florida to look up the coast and yell....DUCK!!!!!

[Gerard]

Honestly, with each post that you say it is getting more scary, the more the storm seems to calm and be easier to deal with. Please post a link or cite a source for future posts if you intend on scaring people by saying it's going to get stronger as it nears LI....as everyone I know has heard the opposite.

You know I was thinking the same thing. Sounds like "Chicken Little"

[Fighting_falcon_51]

Break down of Storm for LI:

The current track point the storm about 125 miles of Southeast of Montauk Friday 6pm.
The westside of a hurricane is the weaker side. As of now the biggest impact will be coastal flooding and beach erosion. Power Outages possible so be prepared.

Storm Break Down on Current Track-
Friday morning dangerous seas and rip currents with beach erosion and coastal flooding during high tides. Winds 15 to 25 mph some gust near 30 by noon. From noon to 9pm Friday, Periods of rain gusty winds. Winds 20 to 40mph in Nassau County and Western Suffolk County. Eastern Suffolk County Winds gusting to 30 to 50 mph, some gusts to 60 possible. Robert Moses Field 5 east through Davis park could see some major beach erosion with the ocean waves hitting the dunes. Dune road during high tide could be flooded along with beach erosion from Hampton bays to Montauk. Friday night into Saturday morning winds will taper to 20 to 30 mph. Any rain will taper to showers and end early saturday. 1 to 2 inches total rainfall with 2 to 4 inches possible in heavy bands over the east end.
Track is still very important any shift east or west will change the forecast..

Weather Forecast……
Temperatures this morning are in the 70s. Sun and Clouds and Hot for today. A bit humid. Highs 82 to 92. For tonight, Increasing clouds and muggy. Lows 68 to 75.

Watching Earl For Friday. Beach Erosion and Coastal Flooding. Cloudy skies with periods of rain, windy. Wind gusts to 50mph possible 60 mph. Highs 75 to 80. Friday night Showers taper west to east. Windy. Lows in the 60s. Saturday a mix of sun and clouds, Windy. Some wind gusts to 35 mph. Highs in the upper 70s to near 80. Mostly Sunny for Sunday with highs 75 to 80. Monday (Labor Day) Mostly Sunny with highs near 80.

Rich Hoffman
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM Seal #190)

Source: News 12 Long Island

Also here are the updated maps for the storm it looks like it shifted away from the East end a little. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...track#contents

Source: NHC

All of Suffolk County has a Tropical Storm Warning while the other coastal areas of NY has a Tropical Storm watch.

Source: NHC

In my opinion it will be a bearable storm. I think it will be like the March nor' easter the worst.

[Gerard]

In my opinion it will be a bearable storm. I think it will be like the March nor' easter the worst.

Totally agree on this one especially for Nassau and the City. We've had worse Nor'easters recently and there was a Thunderstorm about a month ago that came through that scared the crap out of me with its wind and rain. But that said dont mess with Mother Nature though after this goes up and out weather looks pretty good.

[Matt Molnar]

METAR from Billy Mitchell Airport on Cape Hatteras (HSE), currently the closest airport to Earl:

SPECI KHSE 030202Z AUTO 06023G43KT 1 1/4SM +RA BR SCT009 SCT020 OVC031 22/22 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 07043/0201 P0017 TSNO

[fk6065]

And don't forget the Hurricane hunters...................This one visited Republic last year, on a rainy day

[hiss srq]

This is going to be a total no event for Nassau County. I'm hoping for some good surf still though. My guess, scattered showers with an occasional thunderstorm and winds no stronger than 35 to 45 the the western most part of Nassau County. Just me making bets but this thing looks like it's just going to die from this point in.

[NLovis]

Honestly, with each post that you say it is getting more scary, the more the storm seems to calm and be easier to deal with. Please post a link or cite a source for future posts if you intend on scaring people by saying it's going to get stronger as it nears LI....as everyone I know has heard the opposite.

Dont blame when I actually check its stronger then before. And if you look I have posted a few images the last few days showing the 11PM update. Thats where I get my info from. and some good news with this 11PM update. Cat 2 hurricane with 105MPH winds moving NNE at 18MPH. Weakening system which is good. We will prob get some nice winds and some needed rain but it wont be like what NC is getting. (I prefer it that way) Though it will make my work day tomorrow crazy. Hopefully things die down some by 8PM so my flight can get out on time The models are also showing it further away from us now.

[lijk604]

See there's your problem, your quoting The Weather Channel. All hype, all the time.

[lijk604]

BTW, out here on eastern LI, at 0915am, winds right now are dead calm. Sky is overcast, no rain yet. Here is the ISP TAF for today:
KISP 031304Z 0313/0412 05004KT P6SM SCT035 OVC150
TEMPO 0313/0316 06010G20KT 3SM SHRA BR BKN025 BKN060
FM031600 06017G26KT 5SM SHRA BR OVC025
FM031900 06027G37KT 4SM SHRA BR OVC020
FM032200 03035G43KT 4SM -SHRA BR OVC015
FM040200 35030G40KT 5SM -SHRA BR OVC020
FM040500 30015G25KT P6SM SCT020 BKN150
FM040800 30008KT 5SM BR SCT150

Looks like the worst of it is between 6pm and 10pm tonight, but nothing I would evacuate for....actually nothing I would go run out to the store for, either.

[puckstopper55]

Stormpulse says Earl is down to a Cat 1 @ 85 MPH. This is only (well not ONLY, but you know what I mean) a mid level cat 1. The track looks to be the same, but the tropical storm winds seem to be widened slightly. Again not that bad .. hopefully it weakens much more before it makes landfall up north

[moose135]

Here is some cockpit video from a NOAA WP-3 as they penetrated the eye wall yesterday morning. From the remarks on the page, it is not the same WP-3 that visited us last year.

[Fighting_falcon_51]

In Western Suffolk its raining pretty heavy on and off.

[moose135]

In Syosset, it's been overcast, but no rain to speak of. This morning, I did take a ride down to the south shore. At 9am, Jones Beach was still charging a parking fee, so I headed east, stopping at Cedar Beach and Robert Moses.



Looking for treasure at Cedar Beach.



Ready for anything...



This guy did go into the water with his board, but by the time he did, he was a couple hundred yards up the beach from me, and the rain had picked up, so I didn't get any shots of that.



Despite a break in the clouds, the impending arrival of Hurricane Earl kept swimmers out of the water.



Cedar Beach, with Earl some 250 miles to the south.



It was mostly overcast, with on-and-off light showers. Every now and then, we got a heavier shower, but most passed quickly. After a couple of hours of roaming the south shore, I headed for higher ground...