Continental/Colgan DHC-8 crash, Newark-Buffalo.

[Alessio]

I understood that one of the big advantages of the Q400 were its ability to act as an ATR replacement in the north. It's a great shame this may end up being blamed on icing as well.

I recall FlyBe was having trouble with their Q400s a while back, and the type received a lot of bad publicity after like 3 crashes in as many weeks, right? What was the cause of those and why was it seemingly only limited to Q400s?

Nope, it has been a problem with all DHC-8s, I think there´s been around 10 landinggear failures all in all, mainly -300 and -400Q series. Last year a Colombian operator had two landinggear failures on their -300.

[Alessio]

Some random thoughts about the terrible tragedy near BUF last night.

Most importantly my heart goes out to the family and friends of those lost, and may the victims RIP. I also feel for everyone in the CO and Colgan family, and the BUF area folks.

Not to be an armchair NTSB investigator but I believe strongly when all the facts are known, the lowering of flaps and gear during significant icing caused severe flight control changes that could not be overcome in the altitude remaining. It sounds like the flaps and gear where being retracted at time of impact, this might have alowed the crew to regain control if they just had more altitude. I believe the crew did nothing wrong, a crew with the same number of hours as the US 1549 crew would have had the same outcome, there was just not enough time to recover. Keep in mind that not only where they only at 2300 feet, but the field elevation is 728 feet so they where really only about 1500-1600 feet above the ground.

I find it ironic that:
a) the aircraft was lost only a few hundred miles from where it was built.
b) the crash happened about 90 mins before Friday the 13th.
c) because of the upcoming holiday weekend so many flights where completely full last night but this one had thankfully 30 empty seats. Had it been going BUF-EWR instead or at the other end of the weekend I am almost sure there would have been 30 more victims, as the aircraft has a capacity of 74. A very small bright spot but something somewhat positive IMO.
d) right before I went home last night I was delayed leaving the tower do to an (uneventful) emergency landing of a Piedmont Dash 8 from SYR. It landed safetly in LGA about 40 mins before the tragedy in BUF, with 6 fire trucks waiting along the runway. But it landed so slow it exited 31 several thousand feet before where the trucks where waiting for it to roll out, almost humorusly.

For those who remember the AA Eagle ATR-72 crash at Roselawn, Indiana back in 1994 Eagle ended up removing the ATR's from the market and sent them south to be based at SJU. Depending on the outcome and publicity CO recieves from this accident you might at somepoint see (maybe next winter) CO move the Q-400's south to IAH and bring more Expressjet flying back to EWR.

I also wonder (depending on how much negative public reaction there is) if Horizon ends up regretting going to an ALL Q-400 fleet, as they also serve many markets with significant winter weather.

HPNPilot1200 thanks for sharing your friends blog, it was very informative.


Respectfully,

LGA777

All turboprops made in +10 planes in this size has had fatal accidents, with the exception of
SAAB 2000, 63 made. The SAAB 2000 is being pulled off the civilian market to become AWACS.
I don´t think the ATR, Bombardier and Embraer (three main manufacturer today in this size of aircraft) is better or worse in the safety stats.

[T-Bird76]

I understood that one of the big advantages of the Q400 were its ability to act as an ATR replacement in the north. It's a great shame this may end up being blamed on icing as well.

I recall FlyBe was having trouble with their Q400s a while back, and the type received a lot of bad publicity after like 3 crashes in as many weeks, right? What was the cause of those and why was it seemingly only limited to Q400s?

That was SAS Phil and as a result SAS removed the Q400s from their fleet. However the issue was fixed. This certainly wasn't a landing gear problem like what SAS had.

I have to say from my perspective since I fly rather often for Biz its very discomforting to see so many accidents in recent months. Very sad day for all those lost, their family and friends.

I also wonder (depending on how much negative public reaction there is) if Horizon ends up regretting going to an ALL Q-400 fleet, as they also serve many markets with significant winter weather.

Highly doubtful Ron and the same then could be said for US's fleet of Dashs. Horizon is changing to an all Q400 fleet and a departure from that plan would cost millions in an economic climate where a move like that could torpedo their existence. There's zero evidence these planes perform poorly in winter weather. Its way to early to speculate on what caused this crash or if the pilots were at fault, everything should be left on the table.

[Delta777LR]

Thats true Tom

To be honest, that very last incident in the US I heard about a crash due to icing was American Eagle Super ATR flight 4184 back in 1994 (15 years ago) in Indiana, killing everyone on board. Most of these turboprops was doing well in winter destinations. But as you stated too, I dont believe any of these northern Dash 8s will be transfered to the south or just warm climates.

[MarkLawrence]

After hearing something on the Today show this morning, I researched a little more - the Q has advanced de-icing systems including the leading edges - so either that build up was really quick and overcame the systems - or - I hate to think - de-icing wasn't switched on - that will come out in the investigation though.

[LGA777]

After hearing something on the Today show this morning, I researched a little more - the Q has advanced de-icing systems including the leading edges - so either that build up was really quick and overcame the systems - or - I hate to think - de-icing wasn't switched on - that will come out in the investigation though.

Mark, they said yesterday the deicing system was switched on early in the flight, what the NTSB is anxious to determine is whether it was actually working, as that would be a logical possibulity in this case.

And the Q-400 does I understand have a very advanced deicing system for a turboprop aircraft, but keep in mind it is still pneumatic boots, there is no actual heat used. Almost all jet airliners due have a heat based deicing system, even on I believe 50 seat RJ's.

Regards

LGA777

[MarkLawrence]

Thaks Ron - I missed the quote that the de-icing system was on.

[cancidas]

And the Q-400 does I understand have a very advanced deicing system for a turboprop aircraft, but keep in mind it is still pneumatic boots, there is no actual heat used. Almost all jet airliners due have a heat based deicing system, even on I believe 50 seat RJ's.

you're right ron. all commercial airplanes that are pure-jets have bleed-air anti-ice systems. they're far superior to boots in all alpects. there are a few small corporate jets running around our skies that are jet-powered but use boots so as not to rob the small engines of all that much bleed air.

i've flown airplanes with boots on them into icing conditions and was never comfortable with it. i feel almost the same towards boots as i feel towards piston helicopters, and you will NEVER catch me flying a piston helo. there are just some things that are not meant to be IMO. boots have been around for ages, but they are DE-ICE systems and not ANTI-ICE. you have to let the ice build up on the wing first and then use the boots to crack it. if inflated to early, or if the accumulating ice/snow isn't hard enough it will just expand around the inflated boot and then you're really in trouble. i fear that it will found to be a combination of the limitations in the pneumatic boots and the wx conditions that flt 3407 flew into that brought it down.

[FlyingColors]

I understand the Q400 to be very nmodern in terms of anti-ice. Does anyone have detailed info about the aircraft?

From a friend who flies the Q400 for Colgan. Note that this is his personal opinion, and not in any way a statement by or onbehalf of Colgan Air, Continental, or any other group/organization.

A lot of people have asked about the ice detection/protection systems on the Q. This is a great ice handling plane. I've seen a little over an inch on the unprotected surfaces with no detriment to speed or controllability. Lightly loaded as it was, the Q has an incredible amount of extra power. Below 8,000feet we cruise at 245KIAS at only 44-47% torque. Where they were on the approach, they were between 150-180 kts at about 25-33% torque. They would have had flaps 5 and gear down as they approached the marker.

According to the NTSB, the ice system was selected on and picking up ice, so their ref speeds would have been quite high. As they approached the marker (KLUMP), they would have called for "Flaps 15, before landing checklist." Below 171kts, the non-flying pilot (Bekki) would have moved the flaps through 10 degrees to the 15 degree mark. The Q tends to balloon a lot when flaps are extended, as the flaps on this plane are very large. According to the NTSB, this is where things started to go wrong.

The CVR recorded 2 hours worth of data, to include the crew brief of the ILS approach, weather, and discussion of significant ice build up on windshield and wings. They discussed airframe deice and verified as on. The flight director shows severe pitch and roll after the flaps went to 15. The crew attempted to raise gear and flaps just before the end of the recording.

The Q has bleed air supplied pneumatic boots on the wing leading edges, engine inlets, verticle, and horizontal stabs. It also has electric boots on the props. The pneumatic boots operate in six cycles of six second inflations, followed by either 44 seconds or 144 seconds of dwell time between cycles (fast vs. slow mode). The boots have to be turned on manually, but then will continue to operate on their own until the pilot shuts them off. There is also an option for manually operating one of the six boot segments individually, though that is rarely used. The heat for all three pitot tubes is on at all times from the after-start to the after-landing checklists. The front windows are heated electrically, as is the CA's side window. We also have defrost blowers that feed off the cockpit heat system through piccalo tubes at the base of all the windows.

As far as detecting ice: we can see about 1/4 of the prop and outboard along the wing leading edge from there. There is a very bright inspection light mounted in the outboard side of the engine nacelle that shines along the wing leading edge. The tail is not visible from the flight deck. There is an "ice detection probe" mounted on the windshield wiper. The wipers are stowed in a horizontal position, so the probe (a 1 inch tall, solid plastic cylendar mounted to the top of the wipers) sticks up just below the pilots' field of view. There is a light mounted to the top of the glareshield that shines through the windscreen to illuminate the probe. Each pilot has a push button switch next to their knee to turn the light on. Ice usually accretes here before anywhere else.

There is also an electronic ice detection system. There is a 4-5 inch long, 1.5inch diameter metal probe sticking out of both sides of the fuselage just below the pitot tubes. They vibrate at approx 40,000hz any time AC power is applied to the aircraft. When ice accretes on these probes, their vibration is slowed, and small heaters in the probe are automatically turned on. Once the vibrators return to normal the heat is turned off. If the vibration slows again, the system displays a yellow [ICE DETECTED] message on the Engine Displace (center of our five screens). Memory items when this is displayed are to turn the airframe deice system on, windshields to warmup (then on), and Ref Speeds to Increase (raises the calculated stall speed for the horn/pusher/shaker by 20kts - there is no stall vane/stall probe on the Q, it's all done by the computer). The [ICE DETECTED] message remains displayed until the probes no longer detect ice or the weight on wheels switch is made. The computer handles the rest.

If this was, indeed a tail stall, it would have been very difficul to detect. The Q's elevator is purly hydraulic with an artificial feel system for the control column. Control forces are normally heavier than most airplanes if you're more than very slightly out of trim. They likely wouldn't have had much if any tactile warning of building ice or an impending stall with the nature of the hydraulics on the elevator. I think it would have probably presented like an uncomanded stick pusher activation.

This states the boots use "bleed air" and that is compressed air so it should be heated, yes?

[cancidas]

This states the boots use "bleed air" and that is compressed air so it should be heated, yes?

no, it's not hot air. not in the sense you're thinking. the point of the boots is to inflate and break ice off the leading edge of the wing. jets use bleeds to heat the leading edge of the wing to keep ice from forming in the first place.

[Matt Molnar]

NTSB issued a safety alert less than 2 months ago instructing pilots (all pilots, not just Q400s) to activate boots as soon as they enter icing conditions, noting that as little as 1/4 of ice on the leading edges can increase stall speed by 25-40 knots.

http://ntsb.gov/alerts/SA_014.pdf

[Alessio]

Thats true Tom

To be honest, that very last incident in the US I heard about a crash due to icing was American Eagle Super ATR flight 4184 back in 1994 (15 years ago) in Indiana, killing everyone on board. Most of these turboprops was doing well in winter destinations. But as you stated too, I dont believe any of these northern Dash 8s will be transfered to the south or just warm climates.

Been a few accidents due to icing inbetween those, http://aviation-safety.net/database/dbl ... ng=&page=2

[T-Bird76]

Here's the company that produces the Deicing system for the Q400 along with a description of the systems it uses.

http://www.aerosafety.zodiac.com/?p=ela ... on_deicing

[Alessio]

[quote=T-Bird76]

I understood that one of the big advantages of the Q400 were its ability to act as an ATR replacement in the north. It's a great shame this may end up being blamed on icing as well.

I recall FlyBe was having trouble with their Q400s a while back, and the type received a lot of bad publicity after like 3 crashes in as many weeks, right? What was the cause of those and why was it seemingly only limited to Q400s?

[/quote:13pz5x3x]

That was SAS Phil and as a result SAS removed the Q400s from their fleet. However the issue was fixed. This certainly wasn't a landing gear problem like what SAS had.

I have to say from my perspective since I fly rather often for Biz its very discomforting to see so many accidents in recent months. Very sad day for all those lost, their family and friends.

[Quote]
I don´t agree that the landing gear issue was/is solved, how come a Colombian operator had 2 accidents last year with landing gear failures (-300 series) when it was "fixed" already in 2007?
The SAS 400Q was turned into firefighting planes by Bombardier.
Also the NTSB report of the Buffalo accident isn´t done yet, so we don´t know what caused it. It could´ve been a landing gear issue together with icing that made the airplane stall.

[emshighway]

News reports are saying NTSB is stating the aircraft made a 180 turn possibly to get rid of the ice. Also they are saying the plane didn't nose dive but came in flat.