More Storms on the way

**T-Bird76** · 2007-07-19, 01:11 PM

Well it looks like more storms are begining to form to the west and north of us right now. All three major area airports are expirencing delays and cancellations already and the FAA's traffic management program is in effect. Hopefully this evenings storms won't be as bad as yesterdays, I don't need another tornado touching down near my town...

**RDU-JFK** · 2007-07-19, 01:19 PM

So did the funnel cloud actually touch the ground? Must have been an amazing sight to see for anyone out there. Seems more likely for a tornado to be in NJ or Orange County, NY rather than LI.

**USAF Pilot 07** · 2007-07-19, 01:39 PM

Contrary to what many believe, tornadoes can, and do form anywhere. There have been tornado reports in all 50 states since records started being kept. My research topic for one of my meteorology classes was the tornado that impacted Westchester County last year. The tornado was on the ground for over 30 minutes and reached maximum intensity of EF2.

The tornadoes that generally form in our area though are weak tornadoes, such as the one seen in L.I. rarely exceeding the EF2 (the enhanced Fujita Scale) threshold. The last reported tornadoes in NYC were a F0 on 10/27/03 on Staten Island, a F1 on 10/28/95 on Staten Island, and a F1 in October of 1985 in Queens. There was also a tornado in Bayonne NJ in May of last year, reaching F1 strength.

As for today, we are still under a very unstable airmass with a decent amount of shear in the lower-levels and fairly high CAPE values, among other things... What this means is that the potential for strong/severe thunderstorms is definitely there and it is likely we will see strong/severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds, and heavy rainfall, and the possibility of small hail in areas, especially inland, as the cold front passes through. Should be some diversions later tonight.

**adam613** · 2007-07-19, 02:04 PM

How high is the CAPE here? I wouldn't think it is too bad, because the cloud cover has inhibited most of the surface heating. (At least as far as I can see from my office in west Midtown...)

**AirtrafficController** · 2007-07-19, 02:11 PM

ohh man more bad weather. i was expecting to bring my camera and new small lens to take some photos of my grandparent's anniversery today.

BTW I do like thunderstorms but when lighting gets too close for comfort, I lose it.

**GrummanFan** · 2007-07-19, 02:14 PM

Originally Posted by AirtrafficController

but when lighting gets too close for comfort, I lose it.

I just break out a wider-angle lens :D

**Iberia A340-600** · 2007-07-19, 02:21 PM

Sounds like I've been missing quiet a bad 6 weeks of weather in New York. Quiet honestly I look forward and hope that when I get back next week that this type of weather will continue for a little bit, granted not every day but once and a while in August. The weather down here in Cusco is just so plain that it really bores me! Everyday it's either sunny with some clouds or just plain cloudy. No rain, no thunderstorms, no snow, no nothing.

Of course I also hope to get some diversions up to SWF, I've already missed three Continental 777-200s. :cry:

**hiss srq** · 2007-07-19, 02:26 PM

I am sitting ready fopr a long night. I have free lunch and dinner tonight so no worries. B esides I have my windows to the world here so it will be fun.

**Matt Molnar** · 2007-07-19, 02:32 PM

Don't worry, Gordon. You'll still have all of August.

**USAF Pilot 07** · 2007-07-19, 03:13 PM

Originally Posted by adam613

How high is the CAPE here? I wouldn't think it is too bad, because the cloud cover has inhibited most of the surface heating. (At least as far as I can see from my office in west Midtown...)

Surface heating has been somewhat limited by cloud cover, but SBCAPE values are still close to 1000 J/kg in a lot of areas... I'm having some trouble reaching products that I normally use, but the 0-6km shear values are around 40KTS...

SPC is also reporting 0-1KM s-rh values of 200 m^2/s^2. Combine all this together, and the potential for rotating updraft supercells (i.e. severe thunderstorms) is likely.

EDIT: As of 314PM EST we have a Tornado Warning for Southern Litchfield County. From the NWS: "AT 252 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD AND STRONG WINDS. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HORSE HEAVEN...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEW MILFORD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH." We've got some pretty strong and severe thunderstorms up the Hudson Valley.

Also, SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for our area (Nassau and Suffolk Ctys excluded) until 10PM. Damaging wind gusts seem to be the biggest factor, along with heavy rain... This may be a case of possible straight line winds, but I haven't looked at enough stuff to know for sure... Should be an interesting evening!

**NYARTCCFAN** · 2007-07-19, 03:29 PM

Can someone splain to me the CAPE VALUE ?

**hiss srq** · 2007-07-19, 04:16 PM

It is when you wear a cape outside and based on the angle to the air it takes when faceing the wind you can predict everything down to the chance of thunderstorms, toe jam development, and gas and indigestion. ;) Now that is what I call CAPE value!