Strong Economy

[Novanglus]

The Dow reaches a new record, oil prices dropping, and it seems to me as though the economy is doing a lot better than the media is implying.

Granted, the price of oil isn't too stable, and all it would take is a large terror attack or some strong shoving from OPEC and maybe the market wouldn't be doing as strong, but still, things are going well.

Real Estate isn't doing the greatest, but it's a normal, forecasted up and down in that market.

So why does the media act like we're upon another recession? Oh, it's because the media is run by liberals, and God forbid something good be happening as we near the end of the Bush era. "Quick, things are going well...let's convince the nation that hard times are right around the corner!"

Sad.

[hiss srq]

yeah you hit the nail on the head liberal media is all about hype they have very minimal footing in life so they have to stir pots to gain support or attention.

[moose135]

The Media is only as liberal as its conservative owners allow it to be.

The newspaper advertising business affords a good look at the economy as a whole and in individual sectors. A few highlights...

• - The automotive category is on an extended downturn as sales continue to be soft, especially for larger cars and SUVs
  - Real Estate is down as rising interest rates have slowed the market. Long Island is especially hard hit with high cost of living, taxes, etc.
  - Retail is down - consolidations (department stores, for example) have resulted in fewer, larger companies. Layoffs in high-tech, manufacturing and other market segments (as those jobs move overseas, or due to consolidation or cost-cutting) result in reduced consumer spending

Yes, for the top end, the economy is doing well. For the vast majority of people, that isn't the case. Little or no increases in wages, continued cost-cutting (to win favor with Wall Street) that results in fewer, lower-paying jobs, loss of promised pension programs all result in a widening gap between the "everyday" worker and the highest echelons of society. For many the "American Dream" is dead.

We see this every day in the airline industry - companies laying off workers, using bankruptcy to cancel pension plans while executives walk away with large bonuses, pressure to do more with less time and staff all lead to the situation we find ourselves in today.

[PhilDernerJr]

Honestly, Moose, I think a lot of that is misleading.

What you mentioned about the auto industry is true in the sense that sales are down for larger vehicles and SUVs. That doesn't mean that industry is doing bad. It's just a market shift. Though gas prices are lower, the effects from the higher prices are still upon us...which just means that people are buying smaller, more fuel efficient cars. It's doesn't mean the industry is doing bad, but just the individual companies that can't keep up with the trends are negatively affected.

I've not heard that retail is down. You're right that their are larger companies, but the consolidation of bigger retail companies has been happening for decades....I even remember Ron Howard's Dad complaining about bigger hardware stores on Happy Days. We are now entering the earlier than ever holiday season...retail is on its way even higher.

I thought the airline industry was bouncing back, too, no? Things have been looking up from the financial reports I've been hearing about.

No matter how great the economy is doing, some areas of it will not be doing as well. Each industry has its own cycle lengths, and when it comes together for most, some will still be left out.

[T-Bird76]

yeah you hit the nail on the head liberal media is all about hype they have very minimal footing in life so they have to stir pots to gain support or attention.

Hiss just some food for thought could you please stop posting in every thread without some substance to your posts???

The Dow is only "ONE" indication of how the economy is doing. While I don't think our economy is in a recession growth is slowing. The prolonged high price of fuel has had a dramatic effect on the economy.

As Moose pointed out some already, last month also saw a huge amount of layoffs across the nation.

Real estate is one of the biggest driving forces behind our economy. New construction is like a domino effect. When it slows there are hundreds of industries that slow as well. Take that into effect and looking at the big picture people will simple have less money to spend.

I think however it is dumb to blame the current Administration. Policies put in place by the Federal Gov't often take years to impact on the economy. Its economics 101, the economy is a cycle; it grows, peaks, shrinks, and grows again. The economy we saw in the 90s was a result of a wave of new technology (invented in the 80s) and progress that now has matured. As other leaps in technology and progress come around we'll see the economy grow again.

[T-Bird76]

What you mentioned about the auto industry is true in the sense that sales are down for larger vehicles and SUVs. That doesn't mean that industry is doing bad. It's just a market shift. Though gas prices are lower, the effects from the higher prices are still upon us...which just means that people are buying smaller, more fuel efficient cars. It's doesn't mean the industry is doing bad, but just the individual companies that can't keep up with the trends are negatively affected.

Phil you honestly need to restate your statment that the auto industry in this country is doing well, that's simply false. Sales are not just down for larger cars and SUVs. Sales at the big three are down across the board. The domestic auto makers here in the U.S are in the worst shape they have ever been. Both Ford and GM aren't to far from declaring Chap 11. GM’s subsidiary Delphi is already working under Chap 11. GM earlier in the year offered all of it factory workers buyouts in order to reduce staffing; Ford has just done the same. Nothing like that has ever happened in the U.S auto industry.

The failure of the U.S auto industry in this country would be a devastating blow to our economy with hundreds of thousands being out of work. While I do not think that will be the case, you can't say the big three are doing just fine because that is totally inaccurate.

[hiss srq]

and part of it is no one wants to work anymore. So if you cannot get quality work why not go someplace where you can find it. This nation is becoming a service based economy for a reason. Everyone wants to go out there and have it handed to them for minimal effort. You see it every day people come to this nation with nothing and make something of themselves. Meanwhile the average joe complains unfortuneately. My generation is a perfect example. We hit such an upturn in the economy during the Clinton administration because the goverment took care of everything for everyone and now we are a lazy people. Granted the upper levels have some corruption in them but there is a reason some are makeing it and others are not and it is not because everyone is corrupt. Alot of the top enders made it up there the hard way or thought for themselves. Some areas like the arlines and corruption in the top levels is just total crap like the top end at UAL or AA but in other industries it all makes sense. You get what you create and we created a lazy people. When people decide they want to work again things will get better. Let us look at oil for example. I do not agree that they should be doing what they are doing and the power to make as much as they make without a little regulation of how they make it but we could have more control over things if the liberals and treehuggers would allow us to tap into our own nations huge petroleum resources. So for them to put the hit me sign on GWB is just stupid. They want cheap oil etc etc... but we cannot so much as put a shovel in the dirt in someplaces with out Activist Annie comeing out and tossing a fit than shes gets to the gas pump and it is near 3 dollars a gallon and shes complaining about how rediculous it is. Well compromise is the issue. When people put in a honest days work they get an honest days pay. Unions kill business in alot of areas. I am not saying palces like the airlines do not need a union in place in some cases to hold it together and make it fair but for instance in Florida at the company I was with. It was a joke we would hire rampers they would go to school watch the videos etc. take the classes and than they get out on the ramp and oh my gosh you mean I have to get up into a bin and work or dump a lav?!! You mean I do not get to sit behind the desk and relax all day?! Come on! You cannot be serious and we are supposed to have pity on people who wont get out there and go an extra mile to save their lives

[PhilDernerJr]

I just got a new Razor cell phone that r0x0rs!!1!1 Does that count as a leap in technology?

But seriously, as I said, Real Estate is most certainly slowing down, but from what I've been reading (granted, MSN's Money Central isn't the be-all or end-all) it doesn't seem as though it's going to be as big of a dip as most think it is.

Working in the construction field (if you'd call it that), I'm seeing first hand that the architects and builders that are being hurt by this recent slowdown are the ones that just can't keep up, the folks that we fakers trying to make a quick buck. I'm no economist, but I think this is just a short shaking out of the posers.

[PhilDernerJr]

To add, a big example is the stone world. Even the Kiplinger Letter has been saying that one particularly strong hit area of the market is stone fabrication. Why? Because guys that had nothing but a handsaw and a garage were trying to compete with established fabricators....and succeeding. Now, the dealers, archs and builders are hiring the small shops are seeing the truth....and the only people in the stone industry doing bad are the ones that sucked anyway.

Similar things have been happening in developments as well. Though I don't want to name names here (PM me, I'll gladly name a couple), there are a few builders that are just losing out the more respected players in the industry. Wait six months until these guys have officially closed shop and the construction side of the industry will no longer be oversaturated and you'll see it start to recover.

Taxes are a good point, though, Moose and Tommy. Again, I'm not saying we are doing great, but it's just not as bad as implied.

[moose135]

Honestly, Moose, I think a lot of that is misleading.

In an article posted today:

WASHINGTON (Marke****ch) -- With Ford Motor Co. eliminating tens of thousands of jobs, U.S. corporate layoff announcements surged by 54% to 100,315 in September, according to a unscientific monthly tally by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas released Tuesday.
The 100,315 figure for layoff announcements was the most seen since January, and it marked the second straight month that such announcements had mushroomed. In July, job reductions totaled just 37,178. The figures are not seasonally adjusted.

The job reductions are increasingly being tied to the slowdown in the U.S. economy, said John Challenger, chief executive of the outplacement firm.
Cuts related to the housing slowdown are surfacing at companies such as Pulte Homes and do-it-yourself retailer Home Depot , he said. In addition, consumer-product companies announced 9,031 cuts in September. "Combined with still-low initial jobless claims in late September, we do not believe recent jobs-related reports point to a broad-based weakening in the labor market," said John Ryding, chief U.S. economist for Bear Stearns.

The report comes four days before the Labor Department releases its September jobs report. Economists are looking for another lukewarm month for hiring, with nonfarm payrolls expected to rise by about 125,000 after 128,000 jobs were created in August. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.7%, near the lows of the past five years.

In the Challenger survey, September's total was 40% higher than the 71,836 layoffs recorded in September 2005, the firm said.
Job-reduction announcements rose 12% in the third quarter, reaching 202,771 from the second quarter's 180,580. For the year to date, layoffs are down 18% to 739,229 from the first nine months of 2005. By comparison, corporations announced 1.07 million total job cuts during all of 2005, the fifth straight year of more than 1 million.

In September, the auto industry announced plans to shed 33,745 jobs, the most for the industry since January's 36,299. So far in 2006, 111,642 job cuts have been announced by automakers and auto-parts manufacturers. The automotive cuts were dominated by suppliers, which are starting to feel the ripple effects from production cutbacks at Ford, General Motors Corp. and DaimlerChrysler, Challenger said. The computer industry planned to cut 10,600, mostly at Intel. The telecommunications industry announced job reductions of 10,059.

The Challenger report covers only a tiny fraction of those who lose their jobs each month. In July, for instance, a total of 1.42 million workers were discharged from their jobs involuntarily, about 1% of total employment, according to the latest data from the Labor Department. Twice as many workers quit their jobs voluntarily in July.

The layoff announcements tracked by Challenger could take place immediately or over time. The reductions could be accomplished by voluntary means such as retirements or workers leaving for other jobs. They could be offset by hiring in other divisions of a company.

[T-Bird76]

This nation is becoming a service based economy for a reason.

I can't believe I'm saying this but... Your 100% correct. We have moved away from a production based economy to a service based economy. Retail has replaced the factory worker as the biggest employees in the nation. As we want more and more the service industry will expand and grow. Its rather sad IMO

[NcSchu]

and part of it is no one wants to work anymore.

That's just a bit of a jump. I wouldn't say nobody wants to work. I think everybody wants to work, maybe not for the same reasons, but you have to admit that everyone loves to get that paycheck.

Personally I never listen to when people say that the economy is bad or good. It's one of those things that has so many variables that are all changing constantly, that it's impossible to sum up in a simply word like "bad" or "good". I never like to trust analysts either, they can't predict the future, only what we do now can set the future.

Oh, and does anybody notice that when the media criticizes republicans or bush people call them "liberal media" and when the vice versa happens they are called the opposite? I like getting much of my news from the BBC, that way I can see everything from an outside perspective.

Just my 2 cents..

[PhilDernerJr]

Moose had to kill it but shutting it down with an article disproving all. Come on man, trying to get some exciting convo goin! Besides, that's a liberal media artcile anyway. ;)

[hiss srq]

and part of it is no one wants to work anymore.

That's just a bit of a jump. I wouldn't say nobody wants to work. I think everybody wants to work, maybe not for the same reasons, but you have to admit that everyone loves to get that paycheck.

Personally I never listen to when people say that the economy is bad or good. It's one of those things that has so many variables that are all changing constantly, that it's impossible to sum up in a simply word like "bad" or "good". I never like to trust analysts either, they can't predict the future, only what we do now can set the future.

Oh, and does anybody notice that when the media criticizes republicans or bush people call them "liberal media" and when the vice versa happens they are called the opposite? I like getting much of my news from the BBC, that way I can see everything from an outside perspective.

Just my 2 cents..

Perhaps everyone wants to work but no one wants to put any effort in past bare minimal in this day and age.

[T-Bird76]

The illegal immigrant problem in this country is proof Americans don't want to work! We think some jobs are below us. I remember only a few years ago landscaper crews were full of American teens and college kids, now their all Mexican. Why because this is below little Johnny now. Hey when you have bills to pay you do what it takes, that's the American way, hard work!