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Thread: US Northeast due for major hurricane: AccuWeather

  1. #16
    Senior Member Steven Holzinger's Avatar
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    The Weather Channel did something on what would happen if a hurricane were to hit NYC today... I forget the name of their series but I think it's called "It Could Happen Tomorrow".

  2. #17
    Senior Member Tower Air's Avatar
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    Yeah that's it..
    "Regardless of where you go or what you do with the rest of your life,
    you can always know that when fate chose
    you for the ultimate test, you were not found wanting".

    Captain William Kinkead in a letter to the crew of TWA Flight 843

  3. #18
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    Just found this thread and wanted to share my experience with Hurricane Gloria in 1985. My employer (Northeastern) had gone out of business but had just restarted operations with one leased UA 727-222 and after several better offers I reluctantly returned to them as Station Mgr ISP. All my stuff was still in Florida and I was living (for a few months) out of a suitcase at some mom and pop motel on Vets Highway just east of the Terminal. As I could not see riding out the Hurricane alone in my motel room I chose to stay at the airport. There ended up being a very fun Hurricane party in the Bar/Restaurant that is just above the main terminal at ISP. I reasoned that if the those Huge Picture windows could withstand a 727's jet blast when they powered out they could withstand a Hurricane and they did no problem. There where about 20 of us up there for about 15 hours and all drinks and limited food where FREE ! Watching the storm cross the airport and the complete destruction of the Hudson General Hangar and numerous light aircraft inside was one of the most amazing things I ever witnessed. I had never seen the Force of Nature like that and hope to never again ! When the storm ended I returned to the Motel to find about 2 inches of water in my first floor room. The lack of carpet kept the aggravation minimal. If your still reading this thanks for letting me rant !

    Regards

    LGA777

  4. #19
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    Wow that's an amazing story Ron! Where was the Hudson General hangar? BTW who was serving ISP during that time?

  5. #20
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    The Hudson General Hangar was to the west of the Terminal and near the FAA Tower, if you look it the large white hangar in that area in Derf's photo below, I believe that is the replacement Hangar ?

    http://www.jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=184332


    As far as service in the Summer of 1985 I will try and remember as much as I can

    AA; 2 or 3 a day to ORD, can't remember if 727 or S80's.
    EA: couple of 72S's to FLL and I think MCO, they at the time where worked entirely by USAir.
    US: Pretty big operation(maybe 20 flights a day) with a mix of equipment including Shorts, BAC-111's, DC-9's, 737-200's, and one 727-200 at night operating DCA-ISP-ALB, with the DC-9 being the most common.
    QS; Our one 727-222 had a different schedule for each day of the week but we served ISP,PHL,MCO,PIE,PBI and FLL all from ISP. When the UA strike ended and UA wanted N7297U back our ops where sub-serviced by
    both Emerald Air and All Star both operating DC-9-10's but that's another story. There where numerous commuter carriers then all handled by Pilgrim, who operated F-27 and Twin Otters.
    Precision. D0-228's (ugly)
    Ramsome Dash 7's (not ugly)
    Henson (PI Commuter) Short 330's (again ugly).
    Possibly Command with Shorts but not sure on that one, it was almost 21 years ago so I am doing the best I can !

    Hope this helps ?

    Cheers

    Ron Peel

  6. #21
    Moderator Matt Molnar's Avatar
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    Some non-Accuweather peeps weigh in...

    Forecasts: Northeast Due for Big Hurricane
    Mar 27 7:37 PM US/Eastern

    DOVER, N.H.


    New England could be in for a big one. Meteorologists say conditions _ including warmer temperatures in the Atlantic Basin and cooler temperatures in the Pacific Ocean _ are ripe for the Northeast coast to be hit by a whopper of a hurricane this season.

    Ken Reeves, a senior meteorologist at the AccuWeather Center in State College, Pa., said that when the Pacific is cooler, it "essentially drives the storm track further to the east in the Atlantic Ocean basin."



    He predicts the East Coast north of the Mid-Atlantic states could see a Category 3 hurricane, a storm that could resemble the devastating systems that hit New England between the 1930s and 1950s.

    "There are some eerie similarities to the pattern of the 1938 hurricane," he said.

    A 1938 storm known as the "The Long Island Express" remains the region's worst hurricane. Its 121 mph winds gusted to 183 mph and caused massive flooding, power outages and wind damage throughout the region, leaving 600 people dead.

    During recent decades, New Englanders mostly have experienced only the remnants of storms that hit other parts of the country, such as Hurricane Gloria in 1985 and Hurricane Bob in 1991, which brought heavy rains, localized flooding and power outages.

    If a big storm did hit, the New Hampshire coast might be spared the worst of the damage because it is sheltered compared to areas like Cape Cod, Portland, Maine, and Long Island, N.Y., Reeves said.

    Lourdes Aviles, a Plymouth State University assistant meteorology professor, said Reeves' forecast sounds right. That New England hasn't had a strong hurricane in 50 years could signal the region's luck is running out, she said.

    John Jensenius, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Gray, Maine, said his group has been concerned for years that a strong hurricane could strike New England's coast.

    Hurricane activity tends to be cyclical, he said. Every 50 years, a pattern develops that increases the potential for a major storm. But that doesn't mean a storm is imminent.

    "The chances of one happening this year is no greater than it was last year," Jensenius said.
    Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem.
    All four engines have stopped. We are doing our damnedest to get them under control.
    I trust you are not in too much distress. —Captain Eric Moody, British Airways Flight 9

  7. #22
    Moderator USAF Pilot 07's Avatar
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    Too bad they left maybe the most relevant quote for the end there:

    ""The chances of one happening this year is no greater than it was last year," Jensenius said"

    Sure the conditions may be more favorable, but to say that the Northeast is "due" for a BIG hurricane or that one is "imminent" is a little extreme, especially when this guy concludes with the above statement....

  8. #23
    Moderator Matt Molnar's Avatar
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    Some more "sky is falling" fodder from the Post.... :D

    WE'D BE SUNK IN A 'CANE

    By ANGELA MONTEFINISE

    March 26, 2006 -- Emergency planners faced with the daunting prospect of a monster hurricane hitting New York this summer - and scrambling to fix their evacuation blueprints - are forced to rely on 15-year-old data for parts of their strategy.

    Emergency management officials in both the city and its suburbs use a 1993 study by the Army Corps of Engineers to create disaster response plans - a study based on 1990 census figures.

    The Corps won't complete an updated study until 2008.

    "These studies are what hurricane evacuation plans are based on," said Allan McDuffie, a retired Army Corps of Engineers manager who is still working part-time on the new study. "The information that they're using for decision making and sheltering [is] outdated."

    In New York City, the population has surged almost 10 percent since 1990, and the number of people who live in flood zones increased from 1.1 million to between 2.2 million and 2.4 million.

    The nerve-racking assessments come in the wake of last week's declaration from AccuWeather chief forecaster Joe Bastardi that "the Northeast coast is long overdue for a powerful hurricane," saying it's "not a question of if but when."

    The experts say in the case of a Category 3 or higher storm:

    * All of Manhattan below Canal Street would be underwater. Battery Park City would get hit the worst, inundated by 20 feet of water.

    * On Long Island, Fire Island would be at highest risk, and the whole island would have to be evacuated.

    * Jamaica Bay would get 30-foot storm surges, leaving Kennedy Airport under 19 feet of water. La Guardia Airport would be under 5 feet of water.

    * Both Yankee Stadium and Shea Stadium would experience flooding, and Coney Island would be hit with 20-foot storm surges.

    * The Rockaways - which actually lost an entire island to the massive hurricane of 1893 - would see 27-foot storm surges and "basically be totally covered in water," McDuffie said.

    "All of the coastline of New York would be in trouble," McDuffie said.
    Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem.
    All four engines have stopped. We are doing our damnedest to get them under control.
    I trust you are not in too much distress. —Captain Eric Moody, British Airways Flight 9

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