Aviation News

July 3, 2014

Hurricane Arthur Forecast and Development (UPDATED 5PM Thursday)

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Written by: Adam Daum and NYCA Staff
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(UPDATED 5:00 PM EDT/2100z)

As of 5pm EDT (21z), Hurricane Arthur was located about 35mi S of Cape Fear, NC / 185mi SW of Cape Hatteras, NC. Max sustained winds are at 90mph with a minimum central pressure of 979mb. The storm is moving NNE at 13mph.

Arthur’s movement has shifted NNE this afternoon due to the influence of an approaching upper air trough. Arthur is a Cat. 1 hurricane and is slowly approaching Cat. 2 strength. All of the Outer Banks is under a Hurricane Warning. (Parts of the northern SC Coast, southern NC Coast and VA coast are under Hurricane Watches / Tropical Storm Warnings) In addition, Cape Cod and Nantucket have also been put under Tropical Storm Warnings for tomorrow night. (Environment Canada has issued a Tropical Storm watch for Nova Scotia) Arthur will imminently skirt the North Carolina Coast, making its closest pass to the Outer Banks over the next 12 hours. By then, max sustained winds should be approaching 95mph, with higher gusts.

By Friday morning, the storm will be headed straight to the NE as a cold front pushes through the mid-Atlantic. Arthur is anticipated to pass 50-100mi to the SE of Nantucket late Friday / early Saturday (around 06z on 07/05), yielding very gusty winds to far southern New England. The storm should still be a moderate Cat. 1 hurricane at that time, though it will likely be undergoing extratropical transition with stronger wind sheer and a cold front accelerating its movement.

The Northeast Corridor (DC-NYC-BOS) is still slated to see some heavy rains late tonight through midday Friday due to the interaction of the cold front and Arthur’s NW Side… Winds would not be overly gusty but flash flooding will be a possibility.

Multiple members of NYCAviation staff have contributed to this article. Stay tuned for regular updates as the storm develops.

Adam Daum is a Senior Aviation Meteorologist with WSI and is embedded within the System Operations Center of a major NY-based airline. Hailing from Oceanside, NY, Adam graduated from Cornell University in 2005 and spent the next five years working at NBC News on The Today Show and NY1 News as a weather producer. His love for aviation (and Israel) led him to join the Israeli Air Force in 2010 and work as an aviation forecaster for the Israel Meteorological Service from 2011-2013.

About the Author

Adam Daum and NYCA Staff



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